We’re quickly approaching the 2022 NFL Draft, and it isn’t hyperbole to say this is a big one for the Green Bay Packers.
Sure, every draft has massive repercussions for the immediate and long-term future. But with the return of reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have a few more years of an open Super Bowl window before the future Hall of Famer hangs up his cleats. The team also lost their best skill position player in Davante Adams, and they need to stock their wide receiver cupboard. Finally, Green Bay, despite some excellent cap ninjitsu, isn’t flush with cash to spend on free agents, so the team needs good, cheap talent. That’s a triple threat that only the draft can solve.
However, to make the most of their draft selections, Brian Gutekunst may need to deviate from the Packers’ standard thresholds. After two years of a global pandemic, this draft class has a lot of outliers. There are more older prospects than usual, and measurables are all over the place.
Gutekunst has been in power long enough for us to know he has the same scouting preferences as his mentor, Ted Thompson. Gutey loves elite athletes with good size that play premium positions, and he prefers younger prospects.
Almost all of his draft selections test exceptionally well athletically. While the Packers probably don’t use Relative Athletic Scores, the vast majority of Gutekunst’s selections have scores above 8.0 out of 10. Exceptions like Jace Sternberger haven’t worked out well.
Size matters for the Packers’ scouting staff. Jaire Alexander was slightly small by their CB standards, and they viewed Amari Rodgers as a weapon rather than a traditional wide receiver. But the Packers have mostly stuck to the same size thresholds over the last two decades.
Gutekunst (and Thompson) generally proffered their first-rounders to be younger as well. Eric Stokes is Gutekunst’s oldest first-rounder at the geriatric age of 22. Kenny Clark has been dominating offensive linemen for years, and he’s not much older than some projected 2022 first-rounders.
The draft will test all of those metrics later this month. The pandemic’s legacy on college football is manifesting this year. The NCAA offered players an extra year of eligibility to make up for the shortened 2020 season, meaning there are prospects with up to six years of NCAA experience. Many chose to transfer schools or stay with their teams longer to make up for the lack of experience and create more tape. That means there are a lot more older prospects than in most drafts.
Packer Report’s Ross Uglem used his big board to look at realistic targets for Green Bay in the first two rounds. Between his 10th- and 62nd-ranked players (realistic targets for the Packers with their current first four picks), 11 players would be immediately disqualified solely based on age (23 or above).
Removing these 11 players and those that player positions Green Bay normally wouldn’t target early suddenly leaves a very small list of options, and that’s before measurables come into play.
It’s been said plenty of times: The Packers need to stock up on wide receivers (what’s the 2022 equivalent of a broken record? A glitched podcast?). The thing is, many of the popular options at the top of the draft are either too short, too slow, or too small-handed for the Packers.
SI’s Bill Huber looked at the 2022 receiver group through Green Bay’s historical thresholds and immediately found 13 receivers suddenly disqualified, including popular options like Skyy Moore and George Pickens.
Offensive tackle is another interesting case. Depending on the long-term plans for Elgton Jenkins, right tackle could be a massive need for Green Bay’s offensive line. But many of the top prospects, including Bernhard Raimann, Trevor Penning, and Abraham Lucas, are out of their age range or don’t meet traditional measurable thresholds like arm length.
Edge is an interesting case, as Joe Barry has succeeded with smaller edge-rushers in his previous stops. Mike Pettine and Mike Smith loved their big guys on the edge. So did Dom Capers. Barry’s influence may change what the Packers desire in their pass-rushers, opening the doors for previously overlooked options like Nik Bonitto.
If there’s another thing we know about Gutekunst, he’s unpredictable, even with his preferred traits. He’s not afraid to trade up or down in the first round, and he’s already drafted a few players that went against type (Alexander, Amari Rodgers). Gutekunst also shocked everyone by taking a quarterback out of the blue in 2020. Just because he’s stuck to his preferences in past years doesn’t mean he won’t bend them in 2022, especially when the options that fit his preferences are scarce. It’s one reason this should be a particularly exciting draft.
Green Bay needs to use this draft to fill the roster with affordable talent to maximize the rest of Aaron Rodgers‘ career. The Packers won’t mortgage the future to focus totally on the present, for better or worse. They aren’t the Green Bay Rams. But Gutekunst will need to challenge his previous thresholds in this draft to get great talent early. It’ll be interesting to see what he does.
