The Green Bay Packers offense was always going to be different this season. So far, the results have been statistically mediocre. However, there are good indications that things might improve as the season progresses.
The Packers are tied for 13th in touchdowns, 18th in passing yards, and 21st in scoring – all less-than-ideal numbers when a team has Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Yet the Packers are sixth in total offense. That indicates they are getting the yards, but they are not being effective in the red zone. Even more important than the total numbers is that the Packers can create big plays.
According to reporter Marcus Mosher, the Packers are tied for second in big plays this season and second in passes for 20 or more yards. They lost Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the offseason. The Packers also have two rookie wide receivers as some of their primary receiving options and are just getting their starting offensive tackles back from injury. Therefore, those numbers are significant. Now the work for Matt LaFleur and his players is to be more consistent and to finish drives.
“It’s never easy in this league,” LaFleur said on Sunday. “It’s not always how you start, but it’s how you finish.”
The lack of efficiency is clear because, even with the Packers ranking second in big passing plays, Rodgers currently has the second-worst average net yards per attempt of his career as a starter. His numbers were only worse in 2015 when the Packers lost Jordy Nelson to a pre-season knee injury, and Adams wasn’t yet ready to assume a more significant role.
Rodgers also has his worst average of yards per game, which is more indicative of the low passing volume of this version of the offense. However, it’s his second-highest completion percentage, only behind 2020. All those numbers together indicate the Packers have an offense predicated on a pound-and-bomb philosophy.
There are a lot of short passes — running back routes, bubble screens to his wide receivers, and several passes to the flats. However, they use frequent shot plays to keep defenses honest.
As the season goes on and the young wide receivers develop, the Packers will need to find a way to be more effective on a play-by-play basis. While the team is not high on points-per-play rankings or expected points added per play, Green Bay is ninth in offensive DVOA, a ranking adjusted for the opponents.
The offense has shown potential, but it needs to find its groove soon. The Packers couldn’t score 15 points in two of their four games and haven’t been able to score 30.
“This way of winning, I don’t think, is sustainable because it puts too much pressure on our defense,” Rodgers said after the win over the New England Patriots. “And obviously, I’ve got to play better and will play better.”
The ability to be effective while limiting the short throws will be imperative for the Packers moving forward. Going into the game against New England, Rodgers was dead last in air yards per attempt, at 5.2. On Sunday, the number went up because of an aggressive mindset in the second half – 9.0 air yards per attempt in the game.
If Rodgers has been good in completion percentage and big plays, but his average yardage is so low, it’s obvious that the team lacks intermediate throws. That’s exactly the part of the offense that should get better as Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs improve their connection with Rodgers. Doubs has already shown signs of it, receiving a back-shoulder throw for a touchdown that demands both players to be on the same page. As the fastest receiver on the team, Watson must be more integrated, too. He needs to be more than a jet-sweep option.
It’s still early to determine how good this Packers offense will be this year. There are fair reasons to be concerned, but there are factors that project growth moving forward.
Having a good and efficient passing offense is the most sustainable way to win games in the NFL. Even if the Packers have invested more in the defense, the expectation for the offense will always be productive when Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback.
