The Green Bay Packers are heavy favorites to beat the New York Giants in London. The Packers should win if they can limit turnovers. However, that has been a challenging proposition for them throughout the season. The team has seven giveaways in 2022, tied for seventh in the NFL — three interceptions and four fumbles lost. Limiting errors is not only the way to beat the Giants in the United Kingdom but also to be more efficient and sustainable for the rest of the season.
Last year, the Packers had only 13 giveaways the entire season, tied with the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings for the fewest in the league. In 2020, the Packers had even fewer: 11 turnovers, best in the NFL.
The Packers are on pace to finish the season with 29 turnovers, which would be the worst mark since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starting quarterback in 2008. Green Bay has only had at least 20 turnovers in a season four times since: 2008 (21), 2010 (22), 2013 (25), and 2017 (25). The last two were seasons where Rodgers missed half of the games with shoulder injuries.
Packers turnovers per season:
- 2022: 7 (T-7th) – through 4 weeks
- 2021: 13 (T-30th)
- 2020: 11 (32nd)
- 2019: 13 (31st)
- 2018: 15 (31st)
- 2017: 25 (T-8h)
Interceptions
Rodgers has thrown an uncharacteristic number of interceptions this season — three in four games. He threw four the entire 2021 season and 15 total between 2018 and 2021. The only game where Rodgers didn’t throw an interception was against the Chicago Bears.
His touchdown/interception ratio is 2.0, compared to a 4.7 mark for his career at large. He threw interceptions against the Minnesota Vikings and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a pick-six against the New England Patriots. The pick-six was just his second ever at Lambeau Field.
Fumbles
Even worse than the interceptions are the frequent fumbles. The Packers are tied for third-worst in the NFL in fumbles lost, with four — one per game.
First, Rodgers suffered a strip-sack in the Vikings game. Then, Rodgers and running back A.J. Dillon botched a handoff against Chicago. Aaron Jones had a fumble at the one-yard line after being hit by Vita Vea. That play drastically changed the momentum of the Bucs game. Against New England, Romeo Doubs fumbled after receiving a screen pass from Rodgers.
Green Bay’s lack of care with the ball has cost them. The team is 14th in EPA/play, 18th in dropback EPA, and 11th in rush EPA in 2022. Excluding turnovers for every team, the Packers jump to 12th in EPA/play, 11th in dropback EPA, and sixth in rush EPA.
“Put too many on the ground, there’s no doubt,” head coach Matt LaFleur said this week. “Once you do that, the other teams that are watching you, that are studying you, they kind of smell blood in the water. They’re going to go after, relentlessly after that football. We know that’s going to happen. We’ve got to step up to the challenge.”
The Packers probably won’t finish the year with one fumble per game. For example, the Packers had six fumbles in the regular season last year, and no team had more than 0.71 fumbles per game on average.
“We always talk about the ball,” LaFleur stressed after the overtime win over the Patriots. “When you lose the turnover battle, you’re kind of putting yourself back against the eight ball. To be able to come out on top and lose the turnover battle, I think it says a lot about our guys, just the resiliency that we look for.”
What to expect on Sunday
Analyzing what New York’s defense has done so far, it could be another tough game to secure the football. The Giants lead the NFL in recovered fumbles, with six — the Packers, for instance, have three.
“It’s just focusing on the ball, knowing the ball is the No. 1 important thing in the game,” running back Aaron Jones said. “That’s how we go about it here. The ball, the team, the North. So just take care of it. Just be aware of it, knowing what teams are trying to do.”
However, it might be a good game for Rodgers to get back on track. The Giants have yet to intercept a pass this season.
Even though the turnover numbers are worrisome, that might be a positive sign for the Packers moving forward. Considering how good the team — and Rodgers specifically — has been taking care of the ball throughout the last decade, it’s fair to expect a positive regression. If that happens, the offense immediately takes a jump in production and efficiency.
