One of the first major off-season events takes place this weekend with the NFL Scouting Combine. There we’ll gain some perspective on many potential draft options while dealing (and tampering) of free agency will occur in the steakhouses of Indianapolis. However, the new league year truly begins on March 16.
The Green Bay Packers have a significant number of their own free agents to make decisions on and not a lot of money to work with. One of those free agents is linebacker Oren Burks, a 2018 third-round pick.
Early injuries and a square-peg-round-hole positional conundrum kept Burks from becoming a major player in the Packers’ defense, though he was one of the bright(er) spots on special teams. He had his best year as a defender in Year 1 of the Joe Barry system, with a career-high 53.8 PFF grade.
But Green Bay’s special teams are going through a major retooling, and Burks hasn’t done enough on defense to earn a spot there. His time in Green Bay is likely over. Burks will be remembered as just another third-round selection that didn’t pan out, a common trend over the past 15 seasons.
Brian Gutekunst has drafted four third-round players through four seasons as general manager. Assuming Burks walks, only two will be Packers in 2022: tight end Josiah Deguara and wide receiver Amari Rodgers. Deguara shows some promise, but he’s struggled with injuries and getting on the same page with Aaron Rodgers. It’s far too early to call Amari Rodgers a bust, especially in light of some early struggles of other Green Bay receivers. But his rookie year wasn’t promising, and he was a liability on special teams. And 2019 draftee Jace Sternberger was released shortly in his second season with the Packers.
The Ted Thompson era wasn’t much better in the third round. Richard Rodgers had his moments, and he’ll be immortalized for the Miracle in Motown, but he didn’t pan out long term. Morgan Burnett (2010) was the last longest-tenured third-round pick in Green Bay, with Jermichael Finley (2008) and James Jones (2007) the only other relevant third-rounders since the start of the Aaron Rodgers era.
As a draft-and-develop team, Green Bay relies on those picks even more than most. And they draft well for the most part. They do surprisingly well on Day 3 of the draft, especially with offensive linemen. Gutekunst has mostly hit well on his first-round selections, which tend to be the spotlight players. What does it matter if the third-round choices tend to flame out?
Well, dear reader, despite the fact first-round picks tend to be the belles of the football, data suggests that, in terms of financial impact, second- and third-round picks can be much more valuable than first-rounders.
A 2018 study from ProFootballLogic analyzes the relationship between a player’s value on the field in terms of their cost on the cap. The truth is that most rookies perform poorly, regardless of position. A few star players emerge every season, along with a few pleasant surprises, but most of them aren’t good. You’re drafting for growth and development, the player they could turn into rather than the player they are now.
So while a first-round contract is cheaper compared to future earnings, first-round picks still aren’t cheap. If a player spends most of those four years as a role player or developing, a team isn’t getting full value from that player. Alternatively, second- and third-rounders are much cheaper by comparison, and the difference in quality between a late first-rounder versus an early second-rounder may not be much. While control over the fifth-year option is the main appeal of drafting in the first round, outside of the obvious stars, a team will get more economic value from its Day 2 picks.
That is corroborated by an academic study from Kraeutler et al. titled “What is the Value of a National Football League Draft Pick? An Analysis Based on Changes Made in the Collective Bargaining Agreement.” Their data found the same results regarding value and suggested teams may want to trade down out of the first round more frequently.
This is not to say first-round picks lack value or that the fifth-year option is meaningless, but rather there is a high value in any top-100 pick.
The league has plenty of third-round picks that have become stars in recent years, including Russell Wilson (2012), Alvin Kamara (2017), Justin Houston (2011), T.Y. Hilton (2012), and Tyrann Mathieu (2013).
As a whole, the draft is a crapshoot. Teams get picks wrong every year, and occasionally entire draft classes are viewed as weak. Even a team with sustained success like Green Bay gets more draft selections wrong than right. The media perception of the draft is highly skewed, and those outside front offices will declare drafts good or bad based on their own preconceived notions and how many big names are selected. Ultimately, if the team leaves the drafts with multiple high-level starters, it was a pretty good draft regardless of where the players were picked.
But the value of a third-round pick is significant, and picking in the top 100 means you’re looking for future starter-level players. For almost the past 20 years, the Green Bay Packers have struggled in that area.
It’s far too early to give up on Deguara and Amari Rodgers. Tight end is a notoriously difficult position to translate into the NFL, while Rodgers was mostly passed over for Randall Cobb and is only entering his second year. But if Burks is gone, it shows Green Bay has failed once again with its third-round selection. It’s an area Brian Gutekunst and the scouting staff need to improve upon.
