The Green Bay Packers got an important win on Sunday to stay alive in the NFC playoff race. However, at 4-6, the Packers will still have to win at least six out of seven games to have a realistic shot of making the postseason. Considering the team still faces the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, and Los Angeles Rams, a win over the Tennessee Titans on Thursday is imperative if the Packers want to stay in the hunt. And it should be a ground battle.
The Packers and the Titans are among the worst wide receiver groups in the NFL. Both teams are in the bottom seven, according to the PFF positional ranking published before the season. Both need a strong running game to be effective on offense and rely on their running backs, at different levels, to establish the offensive flow.
Packers offense
The Packers’ offense finally scored 30 points in the game against the Dallas Cowboys. However, the Titans aren’t a great matchup for what Green Bay ideally wants to do offensively. While the Cowboys are 30th in run-stop win rate and 21st in rush EPA allowed, the Titans are first in run-stop win rate and third in rush EPA allowed. That means the Titans are one of the best run defenses in football. Tennessee is 11th in dropback EPA, which is still good, but not as good as the run aspect.
Green Bay relied heavily on their ground game against the Cowboys. Aaron Jones ran 24 times for 138 yards (5.8 yards per carry), and A.J. Dillon had 13 attempts for 65 yards (5.0 yards per carry). That efficiency allowed Aaron Rodgers to be much more effective as a passer. The quarterback only needed to pass the ball 20 times, completing 14 of them for 224 yards and three touchdowns. Considering how good the Titans run defense is, it might not be as simple to establish the offense through Jones and Dillon.
Nonetheless, it will be a strength-on-strength battle. Even though the Packers are middle-of-the-pack in run block win rate (17th), they are still in the top 10 in rush EPA — much better than the Titans, for example. And that’s mainly because Jones has been highly productive. He is fourth in yards per carry (5.6) among running backs with at least 100 carries.
Packers defense
There’s no way around it, the Titans rely heavily on Derrick Henry to be the workhorse and the leader of their offense. In comparison, Jones has two games with at least 20 carries this season, while Henry has six — including two with 30 or more, so the volume makes the total numbers impressive. Henry already has 923 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022, with 202 total attempts; Jones and Dillon have 242 combined.
The efficiency is not that great, though. The Titans are 15th in run-block win rate, with the same percentage of positive blocks as the Packers have, and just 25th in rush EPA. That means they run because it’s their identity of complementary football, but the results on a play-by-play basis are mediocre.
The problem for Green Bay is that the Titans will run, efficiently or not, and that’s a glaring weakness of the Packers defense. They are 28th in run-stop win rate, at 28%, and 28th in rush EPA allowed. They are one of just seven defenses that allow a positive rush EPA for opposing offenses.
Maybe, the Packers will be forced to adapt. The defense has played primarily with its nickel package, taking a defensive lineman off the field to add the extra defensive back. Considering how the Titans operate, Green Bay might be smarter to play more base looks in this game and dare Ryan Tannehill to throw. That would allow the Packers to take advantage of how good their cornerbacks are.
Tennessee is a challenging matchup for the Packers because the Titans are effective and willing to explore the two areas where Green Bay is not good. Furthermore, Thursday games tend to be naturally more unpredictable because of the short week of preparation.
It will be an interesting test of how patient the Packers can be to keep their new running identity and an opportunity to show their adaptability.
Offensively, the ideal way to attack would probably be with short and intermediate passes. Still, the Packers haven’t shown the ability to do so this season — especially with Romeo Doubs out with an ankle injury and Randall Cobb just coming back (if he plays at all). With Christian Watson as the primary passing weapon, it’s not simple to lean into him as a volume receiver. Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan are probably more secure options.
On defense, the Packers won’t have linebacker De’Vondre Campbell again. Therefore, youngsters Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie will have larger roles in stopping Henry.
If the Packers win this battle in those particularly difficult scenarios, there will be hope for a previously improbable recovery.
