The Super Bowl lies on the horizon, but the Green Bay Packers will be one of 30 teams watching the big game from home. The Packers are officially in offseason mode following their loss in the divisional round. There’s already speculation about some of the storied franchise’s biggest questions, including the future of their MVP quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t the only player with an uncertain future. The Packers have 14 free agents on expiring deals to consider. Russ Ball is in the unenviable position of navigating a difficult cap, and the 2022 Green Bay Packers may look very different from the 2021 edition.
Ultimately, Rodgers and Davante Adams’ futures will have the most significant effect on the cap. But there are plenty of tea leaves to divine before free agency starts. Regardless of how things shake out with Rodgers and Adams, tight end looks like a sneaky need for Green Bay.
The Packers ended their season with four tight ends on the active roster: Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Dominique Dafney, and Tyler Davis. Robert Tonyan, who had a breakout year in 2020, spent the second half of the season on injured reserve.
With their best pass-catching tight end on IR, Green Bay’s tight ends had a rough end to the season. One of the most reliable Packers, Lewis, had a rare fumble that caused a massive momentum shift. Deguara dropped what should have been a first-down conversion. Therefore, the Packers have a lot of questions regarding the position going into the offseason.
The Packers invested third-round picks at tight end in back-to-back drafts, but they released Jace Sternberger early in the season. That leaves Deguara as their most significant investment at the position, and he will almost certainly return in 2022. Degaura’s NFL journey has had some snags in his first two seasons thanks to unfortunate injuries and becoming a common target of Rodgers’ frustration with drops, but he showed growth throughout the season. He fills an important role in LaFleur’s offense, but he’ll need to take a big step forward in Year 3 before he can be relied upon as a weapon. And he’ll need to work hard to earn Rodgers’ trust should the MVP return.
Lewis remains under contract through the 2022 season, but his return isn’t guaranteed. Should Rodgers, one of his closest friends on the team, retire, he may want to try his luck elsewhere or even hang it up. Lewis will turn 38 this spring and may not want to stick around for a rebuild.
Alternatively, in their quest to reach cap compliance, Ball could release Lewis and clear $2.45 million, via Over The Cap. I hope Lewis remains in Green Bay until he chooses to retire, but his return isn’t guaranteed.
Dafney and Davis look to be nice developmental players who should stick around. But it’s hard to imagine them as starters right now.
Tonyan is a free agent, and it’s hard to fully understand what he’d command on the open market. Tonyan was one of the most reliable pass-catchers in Green Bay two years ago. He led the league in touchdown receptions for tight ends with 11 and was one of the biggest Pro Bowl snubs that season.
But Tonyan cooled off considerably in 2021. The glue on his hands from a season ago was gone, and he suffered a few critical drops. His blocking was fully detrimental to the team at times, especially in field-goal blocking. But just when Tonyan started regaining his stride, he suffered a season-ending injury that he’s still recovering from.
Spotrac predicts Tonyan could earn a $10.8 million yearly average in free agency, but that seems high for a player with one year of proven production coming off a major injury. Regardless, Green Bay probably cannot afford any sort of lucrative long-term deal for Tonyan, barring a massive hometown discount. It’s a boon if the Packers can find a way to retain Tonyan. But it seems unlikely with their financial situation.
The most likely scenario leaves Green Bay with a high-round but still-developing third-round pick, a reliable veteran, and a few developmental players at tight end. The team will almost certainly need to invest some capital in the position, but they’ll have to stick to draft picks or affordable veterans to fill the void.
There are few truly elite tight ends across the league, but they elevate an offense to dangerous levels. In an offense that Matt LaFleur claims to have built on the illusion of complexity, the tight end is a Swiss Army knife essential to the entire system. We’ve seen how valuable George Kittle is to the Shanahan system, and that’s with a sub-par quarterback.
The Packers have been trying to find their next Jermichael Finley for a decade. Unfortunately. it’s unlikely that that player is currently on their roster.
