The Aaron Rodgers situation is unique. There is no parallel to a probable back-to-back MVP changing teams and ending his career somewhere else. But here we are. Although every signal sent by the Green Bay Packers indicates they want Rodgers back, it’s still uncertain if he will be playing at Lambeau Field in 2022. And if Rodgers wants out or the Packers decide it’s time to move on, how much would be enough to make a trade happen?
“Hard to say, really,” says Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald. “Obviously, there was Brett Favre, but the Packers wanted him out (Green Bay traded him to the New York Jets for a conditional fourth-round pick). Alex Smith and Carson Palmer were both younger.
“I’d guess a first-round pick and maybe another mid-round pick that would be incentivized. The hard thing is, if [Rodgers] says he wants out and will retire if he doesn’t go to the team he wants, his value goes down.”
Trade blueprints
Matthew Stafford (Lions to Rams)
To reiterate, there isn’t a similar scenario to use as a benchmark for a possible Rodgers trade. But we’ll try our best to define a reasonable market. The first and obvious one is the trade that sent Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions to the Los Angeles Rams. LA gave up two future first-round picks (2022 and 2023), a third-round pick (2021), and quarterback Jared Goff. Someone could argue Goff was a net negative, and the third-round pick was a sweetener for the Lions to absorb his contract. But it’s hard to know exactly how both teams felt.
Stafford has never won an MVP award and hadn’t won a playoff game before this season. He’s not the player Rodgers is and has had to deal with injury issues. But he was also younger, 33 at the time of the trade, while Rodgers is 38 now.
Sam Bradford (Eagles to Vikings)
Shortly before the 2016 season, Teddy Bridgewater suffered a gruesome knee injury that would essentially sideline him for the following two years. Desperate to be competitive, the Vikings traded a 2017 first-round pick and a future fourth-round pick in 2018 to acquire Sam Bradford from the Philadelphia Eagles, who had just drafted Carson Wentz.
Bradford, 28, had been the starter for the Eagles in 2015 and during the 2016 training camp. But he had had significant injuries throughout his career and never became a franchise QB after being drafted first-overall in 2010. The price was much more a reflection of Rick Spielman’s desperation to find a competent quarterback than a value-driven trade.
Jay Cutler (Broncos to Bears)
Jay Cutler had had three promising seasons in Denver, but he had pressing personal problems with Josh McDaniels. All parties agreed it was best to move the quarterback. The Chicago Bears acquired him for two first-round picks, a third-rounder, and Kyle Orton. It’s a similar package to the one the Rams used to trade for Stafford. Cutler was much younger as a soon-to-be 26-year-old quarterback, but the Bears were banking on his upside.
What does the media say?
ESPN
This offseason, the Worldwide Leader asked its local reporters to act as general managers and simulate possible quarterback trades. Broncos beat writer Jeff Legwold was willing to give the Packers two first-round picks (No. 9 in 2022, plus the 2023 pick), a second- and a third-rounder, plus a wide receiver or tight end from the current roster. If this weapon was to be a guy like Jerry Jeudy, it’s almost the equivalent of another first-rounder.
No matter, Packers reporter Rob Demovsky denied the mock offer.
The Athletic
Matt Schneidman predicted that the Packers could trade Rodgers and tag-and-trade Davante Adams to the Broncos for four first-round picks. However, that would only be possible if the trade is executed during the draft because a team isn’t allowed to trade picks four years in advance before that. During the Head of The Pack Podcast, Schneidman also said that he estimates the Packers would need at least the first-round picks to accept an offer for Rodgers.
NFL Draft Bites
Chad Forbes, manager of the Twitter profile NFL Draft Bites, suggested a trade where the Broncos would send three firsts (2022, 2023, 2024), a second-rounder (2022), and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam for Rodgers and a 2023 fourth-round pick.
Verdict
Suppose the Packers and Rodgers agree that a trade is the best scenario and work together to find a suitable solution for both parties. In that case, Green Bay might be able to get three first-round picks and a little more or something equivalent (like good players still on rookie-scale contracts). However, the price could decrease significantly if a trade is made under tense circumstances between the Packers and Rodgers. For example, if he demands that they trade him to a specific team.
