The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the league when it comes to drafting Day 3 talent. That’s not hyperbole. This past spring, ESPN revealed a study tracking Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE). It’s a metric that tracks many factors. But, at its core, it measures how much value teams got from their draft picks.
While Green Bay came in at fifth overall, they were first in value for Day 3 picks, with a score of 215.5. Considering most Day 3 picks are gambling on traits, this is an excellent statistic.
We also know that Green Bay would prefer to keep all their draft picks on the active roster since they value their investments. However, that isn’t always possible, and it’s especially true for seventh-round picks who might not contribute immediately. The Packers might get more value in the late rounds, but every pick is its own gamble. Brian Gutekunst selected four seventh-round picks in this year’s draft. How many of them stand a realistic chance of making the initial 53-man roster?
In 2018, his first draft as general manager, Gutekunst drafted three players in the seventh round: DE James Looney, LS Hunter Bradley, and LB Kendall Donnerson. Only Bradley made the initial 53-man roster, where he started at long snapper until the Packers released him in November 2021.
Linebacker Ty Summers was Green Bay’s lone seventh-rounder in 2019. He is currently still with the team. Summers is primarily a special teams player and hasn’t had a major impact on defense. The Packers could cut him later this summer.
Gutekunst had two final-round selections in 2020 and spent them on safety Vernon Scott and EDGE Jonathan Garvin. Both made the initial 53-man roster. Both are still with the team. Scott hasn’t risen up the depth chart at safety, but Garvin plays an excellent role as a rotational pass-rusher. He played 39% of defensive snaps in 2021.
Kylin Hill was the lone seventh-rounder in 2021, and his early returns were fantastic. Hill appeared to be a genuine steal until a torn ACL cut short his rookie season. If Hill returns to full strength, he should resume duties as a promising RB3.
That means five out of seven of Gutekunst’s seventh-round selections made the initial roster as a rookie, and four are still with the team. That’s a pretty high ratio, but with four selections this year, the data will almost certainly shift. Gutekunst drafted S Tariq Carpenter, DT Jonathan Ford, OL Rasheed Walker, and WR Samori Toure.
Of the four, Carpenter feels like the safest bet. With Rich Bisaccia taking over as special teams coordinator, the Packers are dedicated to rebuilding the unit. Carpenter felt like a selection specifically for Bisaccia, and he has all the tools to be a special teams ace. But with the ability to play a safety/linebacker hybrid role, he could also see some playing time on defense. There isn’t a lot of proven safety depth beyond Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage, so Carpenter, who grew up a Packers fan, has the easiest path to the roster.
Ford may also be a pick made with special teams ability in mind. For once, Green Bay got Kenny Clark plenty of help on the defensive line by bringing in Jarran Reed in free agency and Devonte Wyatt in the first round. Between Clark, Reed, Wyatt, Dean Lowry, and T.J. Slaton, the defensive line is suddenly a deep position group.
Ford also doesn’t have the high athletic profile the Packers usually like from their draft picks. He’ll need to make an impact on special teams or have an amazing training camp to make the roster.
Walker has coveted left tackle experience, but we aren’t sure where his best spot as a pro will be. In his favor, the offensive line depth is anything but set. The Packers are giving all three of their rookie offensive linemen a chance to compete for starting spots at tackle and guard. But the sheer amount of competition will make it hard to stand out. Not only is Walker competing with his draftmates but also with linemen from the past few classes, and many of them were higher-round draft choices.
Green Bay does like to keep a high amount of offensive linemen around for depth, but Gutekunst also hasn’t been afraid to develop his rookie offensive linemen on the practice squad. Walker likely starts the season there.
Samori Toure, the Packers’ final selection in 2022, could go either way. The wide receiver room is the wild west, with little in the way of proven depth. Like Walker, Toure will face stiff competition from his own draft class, as Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are certainty roster locks. But Aaron Rodgers likes what he sees in Toure, and draft position doesn’t matter if Rodgers wants to throw you the ball.
Toure also could play a big role on special teams as a gunner or returner, which has value for a group in need of new success. Green Bay prefers to keep six wide receivers on the active roster, but Toure could make the cut after a strong training camp.
At this point, Carpenter feels like a lock, Ford and Walker seem like practice-squad candidates, and Toure is a true wild card. All this could change over the next few weeks, though, as each player will get a fair chance to carve a role for themselves.
