The Jacksonville Jaguars kinda messed things up for everyone, didn’t they?
By signing wide receiver Christian Kirk to a 4-year, $72 million deal early in free agency, they set a tone for the rest of the wide-receiver market. Jacksonville is no stranger to overspending on average players, but this move had radical repercussions league-wide.
Davante Adams already sought to be the NFL’s highest-paid wide receiver, and he found that deal in Las Vegas. But Tyreek Hill signed with Miami and became the new highest-paid receiver a few days later. Now, young pass-catchers around the league seek big paydays of their own.
Adam Schefter reported Monday that former Day 2 picks Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, and Terry McLaurin are expected to skip off-season programs until they get new, lucrative contracts. All three players are currently on their rookie contracts but have made an immediate splash in the league.
The quarterback market has been steadily expanding the last few seasons, and many signal-callers are seeking guaranteed money in NBA-style contracts. Now their favorite targets want to cash in as well. The Green Bay Packers already lost two wide receivers in free agency, and the position is a major area of need. How will the exploding wide-receiver market affect the Packers and the league as a whole?
Regardless of position, most rookies struggle in their first season. It takes some time to get into NFL-ready shape (something I know nothing about), learn the playbook, and refine their talents to compete with higher-level competition.
But we’re seeing a rise in the number of NFL-ready players, including receivers. Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle already look like stars after one season. Justin Jefferson looked like a young Randy Moss out of the gate, and I weep seeing him in a Minnesota Vikings uniform. Samuel, Brown, and McLaurin quickly became focal points in their respective offenses.
Of course, drafting a wide receiver in the first round isn’t a guaranteed success. Just ask the Philadelphia Eagles. But teams are getting more value from their receivers early, and those players (rightly) want to be paid like the contributors they are.
Unfortunately for the teams, the salary cap exists. It’s hard to pay a receiver quarterback-level money, especially when you’re paying a quarterback quarterback-level money. It’s hard to commit those resources with contract records being broken daily across the positional spectrum.
But if the talent entering the league every year is improving, is it better to spend resources on new, cheaper receivers the move instead? Could “pay wide receivers” become the new “paying running backs” meme?
So what is a team like Green Bay, who lost two of their top pass catchers this offseason, to do? The solution is to keep bringing in talent, get good value from veterans, and make the scheme player-friendly.
The Packers used to be good at bringing in new talent early while already having featured wideouts. Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams were all Day 2 picks that added to a deep group.
Then, in the third round of the 2015 draft, the Packers drafted Ty Montgomery, who switched to running back out of necessity and ultimately didn’t pan out. While Green Bay took fliers on Day 3 options, they wouldn’t take a Day 2 option until 2021, when they drafted Amari Rodgers in the third round. Rodgers is an atypical pick. He doesn’t meet the historical thresholds for the position, and the Packers drafted him as more of a gadget player.
Yeah, Matt LaFleur is 7-0 without Adams, but his team hasn’t had to go a full season without him. The Packers grew reliant on Adams, and there isn’t a true WR1 on the roster. Brian Gutekunst needs to invest in the position early and often to keep the cupboard stocked.
On the other hand, Green Bay is very good at getting value out of veteran options and UDFAs. Allen Lazard is a bona fide WR2 who most other teams would overlook. No one was sure what to make of Cobb’s return last season, but he played a significant role in the offense. The Packers will hope the newly acquired Sammy Watkins can do the same. Savvy players willing to do the dirty work power LaFleur’s scheme.
And his scheme is one aspect that will keep the team moving forward. A player-friendly scheme that puts players in the position to succeed can overcome a lot, as we saw when the Packers beat the then-undaunted Arizona Cardinals last season with mostly practice squad players. Green Bay also employs a strong running game, which puts less pressure on their receivers. These aren’t the Mike McCarthy days of total reliance on winning one-on-one.
The league-wide trend of receivers getting big money and getting it early in their careers isn’t going away. Teams need to evolve or see their options limited. Green Bay needs to start investing in the position more frequently. Aaron Rodgers can elevate his targets, but he’s earned some new weapons.
