The Minnesota Timberwolves need to avoid the play-in game. The Wolves would have two home playoff games if they finish as the 7-seed, and one would be against the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers. They win and they’re in. But if they lose, they would have to play a win-or-go-home game against the winner of the ninth- versus tenth-seed game.
The ninth- and tenth-seed in the Western Conference aren’t as clear-cut as the seventh and eighth-seed, though. Right now, the New Orleans Pelicans are almost a lock to be in the play-in, but we don’t know which seed they’ll end up in. Furthermore, the Los Angeles Lakers looked like a lock to make the play-in, but now LeBron James is injured, and the San Antonio Spurs are surging. The 9- and 10-seeds are essentially up for grabs right now.
The Spurs got hot at the right time and aren’t an easy win for any team. The Pelicans are no slouch either. They started the season 1-12 and have had an extraordinary turnaround to get into the play-in tournament. The Pelicans gave the Wolves problems early on beating the Wolves on Jan. 11th and Oct. 25th. For a team that’s given Minnesota trouble throughout the year, the Wolves would be wise to look to avoid them altogether.
So what’s the best way to avoid a win-or-go-home game against one of these three teams?
Beat the Clippers.
Pretty simple right?
Well, no. Paul George has returned from the elbow injury that sidelined him most of the season. Now the Wolves have a huge problem on their hands. Not only is George arguably a top-10 player in the league, but he also has a dominant record versus the Wolves ever since he joined the Clippers.
Paul George has had Minnesota’s number this season. George is 3-0 against them while putting up 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists.
Suddenly, the Wolves have to find a way to shut down PG13 in the most crucial game of the year. The Wolves are opening Pandora’s Box if they let George improve his record to 8-1 against them. Anthony Davis could return for the play-in, should the Lakers qualify. That’s a scary proposition for any team in a win-or-go-home scenario, but especially the Wolves, who have a smaller roster. Although the Lakers haven’t looked like a contender this year, the King still can take over a game at 37.
So how do the Wolves reign a healthy PG in?
Size
Like any great mid-range shooter, George gets to his spot on the floor with ease. If you allow George to dribble himself into the mid-range and square up, set his feet, and fire, the Clippers are adding two points to their total almost every time. How do you defend George? Have a big get into his airspace to deter a mid-range jumper.
The key is to make George pass the ball. Ultimately, the Wolves have the best chance at getting a stop when George is a background character in the play.
The play below from the Clippers’ Oct. 27th game against the Cleveland Cavaliers shows the Cavs using their size to attack George off a pick-and-roll. Although it doesn’t end in a pass, George takes a relatively difficult shot. Even if he takes that shot and makes it, the Cavs should have been happy with the shot.
Cleveland threw Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen, and Evan Mobley at PG coming off a PnR all night. George went 6 for 20 and scored only 12 points on the night.
The Wolves don’t have that much size, though, so they have to make it up with athleticism.
Attacking Early
The bigs can sit back, wait, and get into George’s body after the PnR. But Minnesota’s smaller players need to attack George from the beginning of the action. They need to go over the screen and keep their body in front of him the entire time.
Anthony Edwards did a fantastic job of this early on in the season. The clip below doesn’t show off the PnR blitzing tactic the Wolves tend to do this season, but this is almost picture-perfect defense from Ant. He uses his big body, long arms, and stature to go straight up and down on George. He allowed for literally zero air space to let George get his shot off, resulting in a swipe on the jumper.
For an example of what not to do, look at how the Memphis Grizzlies tried to defend George. Steven Adams drops to defend Ivica Zubac and leaves Desmond Bane playing catch up. By the time he recovered, he had already feet his set, squared up, and cashed the shot.
Making the others beat you
Paul George is not a natural playmaker. He’s shown the ability at times, but the Wolves can force George into a lot of errant throwaways.
Teams can often double George this season due to the talent around him. These doubles can result in turnovers due to George’s less-than-perfect playmaking skills. It’s a relatively similar situation to Karl-Anthony Towns and the Wolves.
Looking at the video, you can see a lot of throwaways off the pick-and-roll when teams blitz it. Blitzing screens are something the Wolves are very familiar with. The Wolves have been blitzing screens underneath head coach Chris Finch for a long time.
Size bothers Paul George. However, Minnesota’s roster is relatively small. The Wolves could look to turn size into a strength with Jaden McDaniels defending PG after a PnR. George struggles against size on PnR, and the Wolves should look to punish that. If the lack of size renders the Wolves unable to do that, they can look to pressure high and blitz ball screens like they’ve done all year.
Either way, Paul George is the biggest challenger between the Wolves and a potential playoff seed. Minnesota’s best shot at making the playoffs is shutting down PG.
