For several weeks, the Minnesota Timberwolves have focused on climbing into the sixth seed in the Western Conference. The Wolves would like to avoid the play-in tournament and have an uncontested entrance into the first round of the playoffs.
However, another reason they’d want the 6-seed was to avoid playing against the Golden State Warriors in the first round. Golden State spent most of the season in the 2-seed and have looked like a surefire championship contender when fully healthy. As a result, many thought a first-round matchup against the red-hot but inexperienced Memphis Grizzlies would be a more favorable matchup.
Who wants to play against a team full of battle-hardened 3-time NBA Champions in Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson?
Even though the Wolves have been doing their best to climb the standings, winning 12 of their last 17 games since the All-star break, they have struggled to make up ground towards the sixth seed. The Dallas Mavericks have been equally hot, with Luka Doncic playing at MVP levels, and the Denver Nuggets are successfully treading water with an MVP candidate of their own.
The Utah Jazz have been in a tailspin lately, losing four games in a row, and Rudy Gobert rested in their most recent loss against the Mavericks due to a bruised right leg. If Gobert’s injury keeps him off the court longer, the Jazz could continue to slide down to the 7th seed, as the Wolves are now only two games back from them. However, given how few games are left in the season, it seems that the Wolves may be stuck where they are in the standings.
Being the seventh seed could be a blessing in disguise, though. The landscape of the NBA standings has changed drastically over the last 20 games, and injuries to the Warriors’ Big 3 have prevented them from fully hitting their stride in the final quarter of the season. Shortly after Thompson came back into the line-up, Green suffered a back injury that kept him sidelined for two months. Then shortly after Draymond returned, Curry suffered a foot injury that will likely keep him out until the playoffs begin.
As a result, the Warriors lost enough games to slide out of the second seed and into the third. The scrappy Grizzlies took advantage of their opportunity, kept winning, and are now firmly four games ahead of the Warriors in the second seed with only seven games left in the season. Ja Morant will likely be out for the rest of the regular season due to a knee injury, so it is still possible that the Warriors could overtake them to reclaim the 2-seed. However, this seems unlikely to happen. This season, the Grizzlies have been 17-2 without Ja due to the team’s depth and the incredibly consistent play of backup point guard and Minnesota basketball legend Tyus Jones.
Thus, without even climbing into the 6th seed, the Wolves may still get the first-round playoff matchup they wanted against Memphis. The Grizzlies have proved themselves to be one of the best teams in the West this year. They currently lead the league in blocks, steals, and rebounds per game (as well as several other categories) and are second in the league in points per game behind only the Wolves.
By no means would it be an easy matchup. The Grizzlies may already be a better overall team than the Warriors. However, the Warriors were dominant when Steph and Draymond were both on the court at the beginning of the season, and that was before Klay came back from injury. Given the choice, I think most teams would still rather play an up-and-coming young team with minimal playoff experience than a team with two of the best shooters of all time in Steph and Klay and one of the best defenders of all time in Draymond.
The road to playing the Grizzlies in the first round may still be a bit precarious. The Wolves would have to win their first game in the play-in tournament, which pits the seventh seed against the eighth seed to determine who will be the 7-seed when the playoffs begin. As of today, that matchup would be against the Los Angeles Clippers, who will likely have Paul George back by that time. That could be a tough matchup for the Wolves. They lost all three of their games against the Clippers this season when George was healthy. However, all three of those losses came in November when the Wolves had yet to figure out their offense and fully develop their team chemistry. Now that they’re clicking on all cylinders, the matchup should be much less daunting than it was over four months ago.
By no means should the Timberwolves jockey for the seventh seed, as two out of the three possible outcomes of the play-in tournament are much worse than playing the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs. If they were to lose to the Clippers in the first round of the play-in tournament, they should easily beat any of the New Pelicans, Los Angeles Lakers, or San Antonio Spurs to secure the eighth seed. However, that would mean facing off against the best team in the league, the Phoenix Suns — the worst first-round matchup they could have. If they were to get knocked out of the playoffs altogether, it would be a colossal disappointment and stain an otherwise very encouraging season for the Wolves.
However, if the Wolves can take care of business and win the games they are favored in, they may be in a perfect position to upset Memphis and make it out of the first round of the playoffs. It would also present Minnesota with an opportunity to snatch the title of the most exciting young team from the Grizzlies.
All possible advantages aside, the biggest reason to root for a Wolves-Grizzlies first-round matchup is that it would be an incredibly fun series to watch. Both teams love to try to create turnovers, run out in transition, and push the pace of games. Both teams also have an identity centered around being tough, youthful, and talking trash to whoever is within earshot. As Zach Lowe put it best in his recent podcast with David Thorp, a first-round matchup between the two teams “would be an NBA nerd love affair.” Let’s hope the Basketball gods bless us with the first-round series that everyone wants to watch.
