Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz/Indiana Pacers Over 241 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN
It’s rare to see an NBA total open north of 240, and even more rare to see it immediately bet up from there. Sharp bettors will almost always take a shot at the under because of how difficult it is to maintain a pace of 60 points per quarter, but not in this game. We’re seeing rare levels of offensive excellence and defensive awfulness from these two teams, and there’s no reason it won’t continue tonight.
With the Pacers leading the league in PPG and ranking second in pace, they should continue their torrid scoring against the league’s second-worst defense. The Jazz have allowed 122.3 PPG on the road this year, and not against a schedule of truly fearsome offenses either. But with Indiana ranked 25th in defensive rating and creating so many possessions with their style, Utah will get theirs as well. The Pacers have dropped 143 and 152 points, plus had 155 put on them so far in this young season, so I expect this game to get wild.
NBA (1 Unit) Washington Wizards/Charlotte Hornets Over 240.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Ditto on this game for a total opening in the 240 range and not getting bet below that key number by sharp bettors. I don’t blame them, as I wouldn’t want anything to do with an under when these two teams take the floor. I’ve mentioned before how unserious this Wizards team is, basically playing a pick-up game every night and allowing 130.8 PPG the past 4 games. But Hornets games have been erupting as well, with 248.0 points on average in their past 4 contests.
The key here is defensive effort, and by that I mean the complete lack of any from both teams which you can actually see in their statistics. The Wizards are 1st and the Hornets 3rd in pace, they’re 6th and 7th in shooting percentage, but just 16th and 30th in 3-point attempts and shoot poorly from deep as well. That means this game will be a layup line all night, with neither team interested in guarding the other. While I usually want efficient 3-point shooting for an over bet, the easy buckets will pile up points in a hurry and push this one over the total.
NBA (0.25 Unit) LA Lakers -2.5 @ Houston Rockets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet LA
These teams are fairly similar from a metrics standpoint, but I think those profiles are lying to us somewhat. The Lakers have played a far more difficult schedule to this point, and the Rockets have their only 3 wins at home against bad and/or depleted teams. What Houston doesn’t have is LeBron James, who should be fired up tonight after everyone’s favorite player to hate Dillon Brooks poked the bear. I’d monitor the LA injury report tonight for Anthony Davis’ status, but my sense is LeBron might be enough to get past a Rockets team that’s a long way from being able to handle quality competition.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat -2.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
Miami really got off to a terrible start this year, but I’m encouraged by their consecutive wins. Their slow start creates a short number here even against what has been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. Memphis really misses Ja Morant’s offense and Steven Adams’ defense, resulting in this awful 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS start to the year. They just can’t shoot, ranked 27th in field goal percentage and 29th in offensive rating. While Miami isn’t anything close to the form they were this spring, they should still be able to get a win here with Jimmy Butler expected to play tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lipscomb Team Total Under 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Despite Lipscomb bringing back their top 4 scorers from a season ago, I’m just not enthusiastic about this offense in a spot like this. Who the Bison didn’t bring back was center Ahsan Asadullah who was a monster on the inside and drew all kinds of attention from defenses. With him gone, this team that loves to jack up 3-pointers will not have as many open looks.
They should struggle here against a Drake team that’s excellent defensively, ranking 16th in defensive efficiency and 11th in opponent floor percentage last season. The Bulldogs also brought in an excellent perimeter defender in Atin Wright from the transfer portal, who will help shut down those outside shots. Drake is a much more defensive-minded team than Wichita State who just held Lipscomb to 59 points on Monday, so expect more offensive issues from the Bison tonight.
Degenerates
NBA New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves Player Props: 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
If the Timberwolves are playing, I’m involved in the prop market for their game, simple as that. The problem is I’ve been burned by their core players alternating big games. But if you’re excited by this start to the season and a degenerate like me, these are the ones I’m looking at tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points (-110)
Naz Reid Over 18.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (+100)
NCAA Basketball Jackson State/San Diego Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Unfortunately, we might not see as wild of games from San Diego as we have in years past. The roster is completely overhauled, and the Toreros lost all their top scorers from last season when they were an ATM for over bettors. But they still have Steve Lavin at the helm, and his style of up-tempo offense and minimal defense should still be in effect. Jackson State should also be fairly up-tempo this year, and if Monday’s 94-77 affair with Memphis is any indication, the defense will struggle as well. This might be one of the lower totals we see for both teams if things play out as expected, so I’ll take a shot at the over.
Tiny Nick is 1601-1432 ATS (+80.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
