Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/27

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bears/Minnesota Vikings Under 44 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

In the year 2023, with the product we’ve been seeing from the NFL and the trends in primetime, I’m very surprised by this total. Primetime games have been going under at a 74% clip this season, and Monday’s have seen an incredible 12-1 under run. Trends aren’t everything, but I do think we see a lower-scoring game tonight with two improving defenses taking the field.

Chicago has turned into one of the best run defenses in the league over the past several weeks, while the Vikings are finally figuring out how to be successful in Brian Flores’ system. While the Fields versus Dobbs quarterback matchup introduces an element of variance that could result in points, I’m just not going to fight the ridiculous number of low-scoring games we keep seeing in primetime.

MNF Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Josh Dobbs Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Jordan Addison Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)

0.75 Unit – TJ Hockenson Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)

0.75 Unit – DJ Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Alexander Mattison Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)

0.5 Unit – Ty Chandler Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+150)

0.25 Unit – Justin Fields Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Justin Fields Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)

 

NBA (1 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Indiana Pacers 1st Quarter Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

I think the Pacers and their unstoppable juggernaut of an offense goes wild to start this game. I just don’t think Portland has anything left in the tank to put up a fight after allowing the biggest comeback of the season last night. A rested and ready Indiana team should pounce, potentially dropping 40 which they’ve done before against an outmatched opponent.

The first thing that would set up is getting two-thirds of the way to this total on their own, making it very reachable even with less than Portland’s average of 26.5 first quarter points per game. Secondly, the sheer volume of possessions that Indiana’s style will create makes even a plodding offense like the Blazers capable of scoring above the norm. Indiana has shown the ability to force their style on just about every opponent, and I don’t think the Blazers are going to fight it in this situation.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers First Half Team Total Over 65.5 (+100; Odds via BetMGM)

The Pacers should have the pedal to the metal, as usual, for the first part of this game so they can take it easy later on. Portland is not a terrible team strictly from a defensive efficiency standpoint, but they’ve struggled to slow down high-powered offenses on the road, and their numbers are skewed by playing lots of other offensively challenged teams. They just aren’t ready for the Indiana onslaught here, especially after last night’s debacle. The other thing Indiana potentially dropping 40 in the first quarter does is make this total very reachable, so I expect them to run it up as usual.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 1698-1499 ATS (+84.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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