Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 108.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
They’re. Making. Me. Do. It. Again. While the number is oriented differently now with Miami a small favorite instead of the underdog, it’s still a spot where I have to back their isolated over. So I’m all about the Heat in this game, and I’m all about the potential for points as well in every sense. The naysayers will continue to complain that the Heat can’t shoot like this forever, and that’s true, but the number also reflects that doubt to some extent.
Their ridiculous shooting stats of a 60.5% effective field goal rate and 47.8% from deep in this series are truly unsustainable. But they’re high enough that even significant regression gives them plenty of room for error to get over a total like this. Regression was supposed to come for Miami in their first-round series, but it didn’t and they scored 124.0 PPG. They’re scoring 120.7 in this series, Boston shows no signs of knowing how to stop them, and I expect the points to keep piling up tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Boston Celtics/Miami Heat Over 216.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
While Miami has lit it up, Boston has been relatively cold in this series. They obviously packed it in during Sunday’s second half, but in an elimination game I’d expect the Celtics to throw everything they can into this game. That means a high volume of three’s, and if they finally start dropping we’ll see the full game get over the total as well.
Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Miami Heat -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
One conference finals sweep down, one to go. Unless Adam Silver steps in and orders more basketball, the Heat should finish this off tonight. As I mentioned, Boston has no clue how to stop this Miami team right now. The Heat are firing on all cylinders and everything is going in, so stepping in front of that juggernaut is irresponsible betting behavior. At this short of a price I’m happy to bet on dual conference finals sweeps.
Bonus Prop Bets:
(1 Unit) Grant Williams Over 7.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I thought this number was a mistake, or I was only seeing his points prop. It’s ridiculously low for a player the Celtics will need and have given a lot of minutes to in consecutive games. Jimmy Butler might steal his lunch money again, but the usage and hustle stats for Williams will get him over this number.
(0.5 Unit) Derrick White Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+140; Odds via DraftKings)
This total has changed from 1.5 to 2.5 for White, but the hefty juice is what has my attention. As does the fact that this Heat-killer has drained 3 from long range in every game of this series. Boston should be firing away from deep all game, so the opportunity will be there.
(1 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Among the many things Boston doesn’t have an answer for in this series is Martin. He’s gone over this total in every game and continues his absolutely torrid shooting. His minutes are also up considerably to reward his strong play, and this number just isn’t high enough to account for the newfound role and success.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1296-1136 ATS (+74.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
