NBA (1.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Miami Heat Over 203 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
If the Heat are going over their isolated total here which I think they will, then there’s a very strong chance for the game to go over as well. You can’t ignore how good the Celtics have looked offensively for the past 10 quarters, as the rim has been the size of a kiddie pool for them with the exception of the final 4 minutes in Game 6. Elimination scenario stakes have me worried about pace and defensive effort but we haven’t seen a game go under 207 yet despite that the last few games being elimination scenarios for Boston. This number of 203 is just simply too low not to take the over.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 98.5 (EVEN, Odds Via Fanduel)
The two games in this series of sub-100 point outputs by Miami have mainly been caused by one issue: turnovers, as in 16 of them in both games. Any amount of cleanup in that area and the Heat are most assuredly back to scoring in the triple digits much like they did in Game 6. Jimmy Butler played horrible most of Game 6 and they still got over this number fairly easily.
I also expect Jimmy Butler to play a massive number of minutes in this game again, and his presence significantly raises Miami’s offensive efficiency. It might not be a shoot out but this total is once again too low.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat +7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Jimmy Butler all but guaranteed Miami would win this game just like Game 6 and although he struggled, he pretty much willed Miami to a win that was given away with a last second tip in. I think a different sense of urgency will be in play for the Heat here though, as their losses in Games 4 and 5 were difficult situational spots where they didn’t truly need the game and Game 6 was flukey despite a late Boston collapse. Miami is in big trouble but 7.5 is too big of a spread against a Celtic team that has shown huge issues in closing games they should win easily, especially at home.
Bonus Prop Bets:
(1.5 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
This prop is the gift that keeps on giving. While it keeps ticking up, so does the level of Martin’s play. I can understand isolating his points prop at 14.5 if you prefer, but that’s heavily juiced and his consistent rebounding production is a big boost for getting to this number.
(0.5 Unit) Derrick White Over 2.5 Made Threes (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Even in a game where he didn’t get close to his points total White was able to hit three 3’s and a buzzer beater to win the game. It’s truly remarkable consistency in White going over this number of three pointers made in every game of the series. His success from deep continues tonight as Boston should ride the hot hand at home.
(0.5 Unit) Jimmy Butler Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
If you’re not backing Playoff Jimmy in this spot, then what are you doing? He needs to back up his talk about finishing the series off here, and I already mentioned how I expect him to log massive minutes. When he plays over 35 minutes in this series he’s averaging 30.3 PPG, and I expect an all-out effort for a vintage performance tonight. He started Game 6 in a nightmare scenario and still almost got to this number. As long as Jimmy has any flow at all tonight he should get to 30 points or more. The Heat will need him to go over this number to have any chance of pulling off the Game 7 road upset.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1307-1152 ATS (+69.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.