Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/23

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Oregon First Half Team Total Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

Last Saturday signaled the first signs that it’s almost midnight for this Cinderella Colorado squad, and today’s game should be a rude awakening for everyone riding the bandwagon. Oregon is just too big, fast, skilled, and deep for Colorado to work its magic on, and that should be evident from the start. The Ducks are 6th in first half scoring at 34 points on average, courtesy of an extremely balanced attack that has no mercy. Oregon’s massive offensive line will expose Colorado’s biggest weakness, and without Travis Hunter in the secondary, the Ducks will score at will here to make a statement.

 

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma State/Iowa State Under 37 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on FS1

When the Big12 is finally done re-aligning with new teams, I hope most of them don’t look like this offensively. It’s been truly painful watching my Cyclones try to figure out what offense is, although to be fair they’ve seen some strong defenses. They just can’t run the ball like they have in years past under Matt Campbell, ranking 122nd in rushing per game. Being that one-dimensional for your first test against a Big12 defense is not a recipe for points.

Oklahoma State is also having their troubles offensively after managing just 20.3 PPG against a very soft schedule. The ISU defense is top-10 in yards allowed and has been carrying them, so the Cowboys will also struggle to put up points in a hostile road environment. That should lead to a defensive slugfest here that stays under this hilariously low number.

 

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Arkansas @ LSU -17.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This LSU team is nowhere near as bad as they might have looked in the opener against an excellent Florida State squad. They know it, but they also have to prove it if they want any hope at CFP consideration down the line. There’s a path to the playoff available for the Tigers, but it means laying it on higher-profile teams like Arkansas here.

After a 41-14 demolition of their first SEC opponent on the road, being back home in Death Valley will be an even bigger boost for them. I’ve lost all confidence in this Razorbacks team despite all their returning talent. Going on the road for the first time this year for a national TV night game, in one of the most hostile environments in the country, is extremely tough for a team that seems to lack focus.

The bad Arkansas pass defense from last year is back, and the Jayden Daniels to Malik Nabers combination should keep heating up here. It’s important to note that this line simply refuses to touch the key number of 17, signaling that smart money expects another LSU blowout tonight.

 

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Charlotte +28 @ Florida (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This line is too much of an overreaction to Florida’s big win in a rivalry game last week. So is their appearance in the AP top-25 that’s not terribly deserved yet either. That victory over Tennessee also puts them in a let-down spot here against a very inferior opponent that they’re likely to overlook with another SEC game on deck.

Charlotte is not a good team by any means, but they do have a coach with swagger and the ability to put up points, so they could catch the Gators napping here. With such a low total in this game, a four-touchdown underdog becomes naturally pretty valuable, so I’ll play the situational angle here and take the points.

 

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) UAB +41 @ Georgia (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Speaking of teams that are easily caught napping, this Georgia squad just refuses to play to its potential. Their Charmin-soft schedule just isn’t bringing out the best from the loads of talent the Bulldogs are blessed with, and I think they go through the motions again tonight. The Dawgs are also in a look-ahead spot here with a trip to Auburn coming next week, and that has to be factored in.

To be fair, cruise control is all that’s needed for them to get past UAB, but by more than 6 touchdowns is a different story. Georgia has beaten UT Martin by 41 and Ball State by 42, so a UAB squad that loves to air it out should be able to at least get in the back door once the Bulldogs decide to pack it in for the day.

 

NCAA Football (1 Unit) USC First Half Team Total Over 27 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on FOX

I’ve decided this is the best way to bet USC games, at least against bad defensive teams, as they’ve really tended to slow it down after halftime. While this is the first road test for the high-flying Trojans, I don’t see this offense or their approach to games slowing down in the least. USC is the highest-scoring first half team in the country, and their first half production keeps going up every game.

Arizona State has played all of nobody yet still finds themselves with below-average pass defense stats. The unstoppable USC offense should have no trouble getting out to another hot start here, and just 4 touchdowns doesn’t seem like much for a team with 15 first-half scores through 3 games.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 1518-1366 ATS (+73.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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