Without Justin Jefferson, the Minnesota Vikings lack the superstar talent teams usually need to push them past a seven-point favorite like the San Francisco 49ers. However, the Vikings stack up much better against a consistent 49ers juggernaut than in past matchups. The battle in the tranches is much more even because Minnesota drafted and developed Christian Darrisaw to pair with Brian O’Neill as bookend tackles against Joey Bosa and Arik Armstead.
Garrett Bradbury will face his toughest test of the season against Javon Hargrave. However, Bradbury is playing better than ever this year. On defense, the Vikings may not face perennial All-Pros Trent Williams or Christian McCaffrey due to injury. Pro Bowl wide receiver Deebo Samuel will be recuperating after a shoulder injury.
Looking ahead, Minnesota’s defensive staff should mimic how the Cleveland Browns slowed down San Francisco’s high-powered offense.
The 49ers run the second-highest rate of 21-personnel in the league, utilizing Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Juszczyk as backs. George Kittle is the primary tight end alongside Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Cleveland found success against the Niners by accounting for pre-snap motion and shading corners inside of receivers, which occasionally allowed for free runs at McCaffrey behind the line of scrimmage.
San Francisco’s efficiency will dwindle if the Vikings can slow down McCaffrey. The Niners are third in attempts and rushing yards per game in 2023. If McCaffrey is out, Minnesota will face a trio of running backs.
The Vikings will likely line up Byron Murphy in coverage against Aiyuk or Samuel, depending on the latter’s health. Murphy must turn in his best effort of the year to allow Minnesota to commit substantial resources to stopping the run. Akayleb Evans will have to hold up against either third-stringer Ray-Ray McCloud III or one of the aforementioned receivers.
If Samuel is out, the Vikings will defend against the following aerial threats:
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Jauan Jennings
- Ray-Ray McCloud III
- Ronnie Bell
Brian Flores has one of the highest blitz rates in the NFL, and he has used creative packages to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Through six games, San Francisco’s offensive line has graded out as PFF’s sixth-worst pass-blocking team, with a 48.1 grade.
However, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy can thrive against the blitz, with impressive stat lines like the one below coming against serious pressure.
If there were a time for Flores to throw a changeup, it would be this matchup.
San Francisco ranks at the top of the league in offensive and defensive EPA/Play, falling in the same class as contenders like the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The Vikings appear closer to teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts, and Green Bay Packers than upper-echelon teams like the 49ers. It will be an uphill battle. But with some luck, it will be a more even matchup than the Vegas consensus indicates.
Jordan Addison will have an opportunity to prove himself against Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward after a week where he hauled in three receptions for 28 yards and a touchdown. K.J. Osborn will look to build on a four-reception, 48-yard performance, and T.J. Hockenson will look to have a third-straight game with five catches.
On the defensive side, Jordan Hicks and Ivan Pace will have their hands full with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. Harrison Smith should look to assist with the spectacular tight end, and the defensive line may have to use heavier personnel than usual. Camryn Bynum will look to roam and continue the string of strong performances he’s put together to start the season. Corners Murphy and Evans will have to match up well against star receiver Brandon Aiyuk and his compatriots.
Ultimately, while the odds do not favor the Vikings, it is a more fitting matchup than in the past. With a reinforced offensive line and a defense trending upward, Minnesota has more of a chance than many people give them credit for.
