It’s only been a few short weeks, but Josh Dobbs has taken the Minnesota Vikings on an emotional ride to the moon and back. He led the Vikings to a win in Atlanta just days after Minnesota signed him, which will go down in team history. His follow-up performance against the New Orleans Saints had the handful of optimists among us believing that the Vikings had solved the quarterback conundrum Kirk Cousins‘ Achilles injury had created.
But that ride has plummeted back to earth since then. Minnesota has lost back-to-back close games thanks to Dobbs’ costly turnovers. The Vikings are now 6-6 for the season heading into the bye week. Dobbs’ performance has been so shaky the last couple of weeks that head coach Kevin O’Connell wouldn’t commit to him as the starting quarterback moving forward.
Veteran Nick Mullens and rookie Jaren Hall are options O’Connell could turn to when the Vikings play in Vegas after the bye week.
Recency bias would certainly advocate for benching Dobbs. He’s coming off a four-interception game against one of the worst teams in football that resulted in a brutal loss. Dobbs has struggled in a big way the last couple of weeks. But benching him now would be a mistake for O’Connell and the Vikings, with the season’s most important stretch ahead.
Minnesota’s quarterback quandary is complex, with three distinctly different options. There’s Dobbs, who has essentially shown the world his ceiling and his floor in just four weeks. His improvisation and ability to break down defenses using his legs can carry your team to victory. But Dobbs can also cost your team games by trying to create those opportunities too much, resulting in turnovers that put it in difficult scenarios.
Mullens might be the safest bet. He would likely operate within the offense the most comfortably of the three options. During his time with the San Francisco 49ers, Mullins showed he could competently lead an NFL offense by going through progressions and making timely, accurate throws. His game is the most similar to Cousins of the three players, which might be what O’Connell is looking for.
Then there’s Hall, the wild-card rookie who possesses a little bit of both Dobbs’ and Mullens’ tendencies. He was sharp in his first career start a few weeks ago at Atlanta before a concussion knocked him out of the game.
Dobbs offers the most upside — and perhaps the most downside. But if O’Connell is serious about taking his team to the playoffs for a second consecutive season, he’ll take his chances with Dobbs’ high-variance playstyle.
Let’s remember how we got here in the first place. At 6-6, the Vikings are clinging to a Wild Card spot with several teams on their heels. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has done a fantastic job elevating Minnesota’s defense. Still, a talented offense will put up points against them. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ rushing attack has been awful for most of the season.
In other words, for the Vikings to truly have a chance at a playoff run this season, they must have some playmaking at the quarterback position. Dobbs can provide that.
Dobbs played some fantastic football during the Atlanta and New Orleans games. He maintained a solid presence in the pocket and made timely throws. Dobbs displayed good, albeit sometimes inconsistent, accuracy. And most importantly, he showcased extending plays and creating something out of nothing.
In those two games, the Vikings looked like a team that could at least put up a fight against top NFC contenders like the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys.
A high-variance quarterback is definitely not a long-term solution for a franchise. But for Minnesota’s current situation, it’s exactly what they need not only to have the best chance, but to make the locker room believe they have the best chance.
Six years ago, Minnesota lost its starting quarterback for most of the season when Sam Bradford went down. The Vikings named Case Keenum the starter. He, too, played a high-variance style of football. He has his whole career. But during that 2017 season, it worked in Minnesota’s favor.
There are other examples of high-variance quarterbacks lifting teams above expectations. Colin Kaepernick brought a new dynamic to San Francisco’s offense in the early 2010s that Alex Smith could not, and the result was a Super Bowl berth. Russell Wilson‘s ability to extend plays was the perfect complement to the Legion of Boom. It ultimately helped the Seattle Seahawks win one Super Bowl and nearly another.
More recently, the Los Angeles Rams went all-in by trading Jared Goff and other assets for Matthew Stafford. Goff had operated within the structure of Sean McVay’s offense well throughout his career. However, it repeatedly wasn’t enough to win a championship for the Rams. Stafford’s gunslinging style of play maximized the LA’s all-in philosophy, and they won the Super Bowl.
Putting Dobbs at the helm of Minnesota’s offense doesn’t mean they’ll go on a magical playoff run like Kaepernick, Wilson, or Stafford. But given what we know about Dobbs, there’s at least a chance his mobility and creativity could be the catalyst for a Vikings playoff run. He’s already shown it.
If O’Connell benches Dobbs, he would be leaving some potential on the table. Dobbs would be putting a cap on what this team could be capable of.
And when you’ve got a talented team in playoff position with a superstar returning from an injury, why not shoot for the stars?
