We are less than four weeks from the first day of the NFL draft and the direction of the Minnesota Vikings is currently in flux. Todd McShay came out on Tuesday and mocked Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker to the Vikings at 23rd overall. If you read my piece on Hooker from a couple of weeks ago, you’ll know that I’m fully out on that idea. There is too much he needs to learn, and it’s not a profile I’m willing to bet on at 25 years old.
With all of the upper-tier quarterbacks likely gone by the time the Vikings are able to pick, there is a high likelihood that they trade down. If they don’t there should be one target: TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
At 6’2″, 208 lbs., Johnston profiles as a big-bodied X receiver. In a class that doesn’t have a lot of size, Johnston provides it in droves. He currently ranks as my top wide receiver and also my third-ranked player on my big board. He also tested really well athletically, especially showing incredible explosiveness in his jumps.
Being that he projects to be a potential No. 1 receiver in the NFL, Johnston is the perfect option to put opposite Justin Jefferson. He will both be able to capitalize on the lack of attention in coverage along with drawing coverage to his side down the line. Let’s take a look at what he’s good at.
Catching the deep ball
As an X receiver who profiles to be an explosive athlete, Johnston should be able to win deep. Luckily for him, it’s his best trait. He knows how to get open down the field and track the ball. The play below shows him getting a step on the defender on this deep post and tracking it beautifully for a huge gain.
He also has the ability to high point the football. You didn’t get to see it a lot due to the lack of arm talent from his quarterback Max Duggan, but don’t let that fool you. When given the opportunity, he can snag it out of the air with ease. Here, Johnston is running a fade on the outside against cover-2 and the quarterback hits it past the holeshot, but it works to perfection for a nice gain.
Tracking isn’t just about finding the ball in the air. It’s also about adjusting to it when necessary. Johnston can do that and make huge plays in the passing game. Against Kansas, Johnston ran a slot fade, but the throw is deep and not on target. He adjusts to the ball and makes a tremendous Willie Mays-style catch. This is all stuff you want to work with in the NFL.
Yards after catch
When you have a player like Johnston, getting him the ball in space and letting him get valuable yards after the catch. His speed and separation are key to trulying unlocking him as a wide receiver and putting him in positions to succeed.
This play exemplifies what you would be getting from Johnston. He runs a post route with a great head fake at the top and gets open pretty easily.
This next play is what gets me really excited about Johnston. He runs a glance route, which is essentially a deep slant that is often used with the RPO. He has all the open space in the world, which is pretty normal for him to catch the ball cleanly. It’s what happens after the catch that makes him special. Right after the catch, Johnston plants his foot in the ground and hits a beautiful spin move before breaking away for 40 yards.
The power at the end of of the play where he drags defenders with him is something that is constant across his film. Johnston is built very well throughout his body. He is a very difficult player to take down and can take multiple defenders consistently.
The first two elements of his yards-after-catch ability are exemplified here. He gets the crossing route and spins away from a defender while needing multiple defenders to take him down.
The play below is very similar to the previous one. Johnston prays on the cornerback playing off coverage with a hitch route. He turns the corner with his quick feet and turns a simple eight-yard gain into much more than that.
His contested catch rate is a mirage
As an X receiver, Johnston should be really good in contested catch situations. His stats in 2022 weren’t great. He went 8/24 in those situations. That needs to be contextualized.
- Five incompletions resulted in pass interference calls
- Eight attempts were on slants, hitches and crossing routes
- Two incompletions were thrown out of bounds
When you look at it, the numbers were slightly deceiving. It makes sense because the quarterback talent he played with was subpar. The rep below is a prime example of what Johnston is dealing with. Johnston gets open deep consistently, but Duggan wasn’t able to take advantage of it. Here, Johnston gets open on a deep post and Duggan severely underthrows the ball, causing both an interception and an injury to Johnston.
Things aren’t perfect
Johnston has a lot of positives, but he isn’t a perfect prospect. My scouting report had this on Johnston.
You would like to see more production but the Horned Frogs ran a very balanced offense. Route running is going to be a work in progress for Johnston. He has a limited Air Raid-based route tree and needs to work on nuance. Thirteen drops on only 187 targets.
His lack of change of direction skills will hinder any growth in terms of route running. Due to his skill set, I don’t think him knowing a full route tree is necessary due to his explosiveness and YAC ability. The drops were often times due to focusing too much on getting yards after the catch and that is something you can improve.
All in all, Johnston would be the third or fourth option in the passing game on Day 1, and that is the ideal spot for him. He would be able to utilize the things that make him special while learning more of the nuances of the game. That is a great spot for Johnston to end up and would give the Vikings a very high-upside WR2 on a rookie contract.
