The Minnesota Vikings finally picked up their first win in the fourth week of the season, beating the Carolina Panthers in a get-right game against a lesser opponent. The Vikings will try to carry the momentum into what seems like a difficult matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Led by superstar and perennial MVP-candidate Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have a 3-1 record coming into their 3:25 CST matchup. Their lone loss was against the NFC North’s leading contender, the Detroit Lions.
Mahomes did not play in the Vikings’ last regular-season matchup against Kansas City. However, Matt Moore led the Chiefs to a victory that primarily showcased Tyreek Hill burning Minnesota’s corners. Fortunately for the Vikings, this iteration of the Chiefs is much more beatable than in the past. Kansas City has an incredibly depleted wide receiver room, and few players provide offensive production outside of Travis Kelce, who is in his second week returning from injury.
However, the defense still displays gamewrecker Chris Jones after a holdout into the regular season. He will pose a massive threat to Minnesota’s interior offensive line, especially if Garrett Bradbury is not on the field.
NFLElo’s EPA/Play graph shows that Kansas City falls into the same tier as Detroit, an important factor to note not only for this Sunday but two divisional matchups further on.
Despite Kelce return, Kansas City’s passing game has not been as prolific as in the past. Through four games, their leading receivers outside of Kelce include:
- Justin Watson (8 receptions, 163 yards)
- Rashee Rice (13 receptions, 140 yards)
- Noah Gray (8 receptions, 112 yards)
- Skyy Moore (7 receptions, 112 yards)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6 receptions, 104 yards)
Kelce will pose a difficult matchup for Minnesota’s unproven linebacker core. Still, some people are eagerly anticipating the matchup and the spotlight Kelce’s new partnership with Taylor Swift will bring.
The Vikings will likely employ several three-safety looks. Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks under pressure, and he can create magic at any given moment. Harrison Smith is a critical player for this matchup, who is coming off a career game against the Panthers.
Flores should look to simulate pressure often by dropping Smith near the line, then pulling him back and allowing him to hover over Kelce’s routes or spy Mahomes if the defensive line cannot contain him.
If the Vikings can limit Kelce over the middle of the field, Kansas City’s aerial attack suddenly looks a lot less formidable. On the ground, Minnesota’s interior defensive line will face a middling Kansas City offensive line and Isiah Pacheco, a powerful running back. Joe Thuney is Kansas City’s run-blocker, finishing with a 63.6 run-blocking grade after four weeks, followed by Trey Smith with a 60.9 run-block.
Pacheco has run for 270 yards and two touchdowns on 55 attempts for an average of 4.9 YPC. While he’s not quite a dynamic threat in the receiving game, Pacheco has 10 receptions on the season. Instead, old friend Jerick McKinnon is Kansas City’s primary receiving threat from the running back position. However, he has played limited snaps throughout the season.
The Vikings employ the quick passing game on offense. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo frequently blitzes opposing quarterbacks. Screens to dynamic players like Jordan Addison, Cam Akers, or Justin Jefferson could result in solid gains and would help put pressure on Kansas City to sit back in coverage. Kansas City’s top corner, Trent McDuffie, and McDuffie will likely receive safety help over the top in an effort to slow Jefferson by bracketing him.
Keep an eye on Addison. He will be crucial to the team’s success after a no-show due to the lack of passing game efficiency in the last week. With Jefferson drawing heavy coverage, Addison will have every opportunity to show his mettle.
Also, the Chiefs have a small secondary. None of their cornerbacks weigh more than 200 lbs. Addison has struggled heavily against larger corners. The primary reason for his lack of snaps is his lower playing weight, and as he acclimates more to the NFL’s standard of physicality he will see more time
As they look to put together their first win streak of the season, the Vikings have a chance to make a statement win against the Chiefs at home. If Minnesota can contain the primary output of Kansas City’s offense and take advantage of easier matchups, then they have more of a fighting chance than many give them credit for.
