It’s the night of the 2023 NFL Draft and the Minnesota Vikings are on the clock. For months, fans and draft analysts have speculated who they could take with the 23rd-overall pick. They’re about to find out.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has power-walked to the podium, eating the boos like he’s the real-life version of Vince McMahon. Goodell leans into the microphone to announce the pick and looks down at an index card to reveal the future of the Vikings.
“With the 23rd-overall pick, the Minnesota Vikings select running ba…”
Before Goodell even finishes his sentence, all hell has broken loose. A “Fire Kwesi” chant has broken out. There is a man on fire. Women and children are crying. This is bad.
Everyone has the same question on their mind: Why on earth would the Vikings even consider taking a running back in the first round of the draft? Because that running back is Bijan Robinson, and he might be the one prospect who could push them over the top.
The Vikings won 13 games last season, but that’s not indicative of the state of this team. The roster is filled with high-end players who won’t let them hit rock bottom. However, there are enough of Rick Spielman’s mistakes to keep them from becoming a legitimate contender. The result is a pick in the middle of the draft where acquiring another high-end player is a challenge.
This year is no different. The Vikings hold the 23rd-overall pick in the draft. Since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970, there have been 53 players selected 23rd overall. Three of them have gone on to become Hall of Famers (Ray Guy, Ozzie Newsome, Ty Law), while only 14 of them have made the Pro Bowl.
In the past 15 years, only Dee Ford and Evan Engram have made the Pro Bowl after being selected with the 23rd-overall pick. Only four players (Michael Oher, Bryan Bulaga, Riley Reiff and Engram) have gone on to be the primary starter at their position for five or more years, according to Pro Football Reference.
That highlights the Vikings problem at that spot. Minnesota has found elite talent in the 20s before, taking Randy Moss with the 21st-overall pick in 1998, Justin Jefferson with the 22nd-overall pick in 2020, and Christian Darrisaw with the 23rd-overall pick in 2021. But they’re more likely to find someone that won’t make an impact.
If the Vikings were in a full rebuild, this wouldn’t be an issue. For a team that’s in a competitive rebuild and has their head coach and general manager in the second year of four-year contracts, it’s a problem.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell have reiterated their desire to build off last year’s success. But this draft class doesn’t feature many ways to do that unless they find an impact player.
They could take a cornerback but they would need him to be the next Sauce Gardner to make a difference. They could take a wide receiver but that’s like trying to find the next Moss or Jefferson. And they could even decide to take a falling quarterback. But with Kirk Cousins returning, the earliest that player could make an impact is 2024.
At this point, the Vikings’ brain trust has to ask which player is the most likely to become the Jefferson or Moss of their position. In this draft, that happens to be Robinson.
According to Pro Football Network’s prospect consensus rankings, Robinson is the draft’s No. 5-overall prospect. His 9.83 relative athletic score ranks 29th out of 1,634 running backs since 1987, per Kent Lee Platte. He should be one of the top picks in this draft, but in true Moneyball fashion, his one defect is that he plays running back.
The running back position has become devalued with teams figuring out that younger, cheaper backs are the best way to build a contender. That’s true, as finding an Isiah Pacheco or an Elijah Mitchell in the later rounds of the draft allows teams to spend their resources on more premium positions. It’s why Pro Football Focus has Robinson ranked as the 27th prospect on its big board. But it’s also flawed because teams have taken it too far when it comes to the top prospects in the draft.
Consider that the Vikings are practically begging teams to trade for Dalvin Cook even though he’s posted four straight 1,000-yard seasons. It makes sense considering Cook’s $14.1 million cap hit for next season. But it’s not the same situation the Vikings would put themselves in if they selected Robinson in Round 1.
According to Over The Cap’s rookie pay scale projections, Robinson would be due a four-year, $14.4 million contract if he were selected with the 23rd-overall pick. His cap hit would be $2.6 million in 2023 and go up to $4.6 million in 2026.
At this point, the Vikings could utilize the fifth-year option to keep him around in 2027. If he pans out as most people expect, they can utilize the franchise tag in the same way the New York Giants retained Saquon Barkley and the Las Vegas Raiders kept Josh Jacobs before letting him walk the following year.
By this logic alone, teams should be lining up to draft running backs in the first round. But there aren’t many prospects who are worth the pick. However, Robinson is worth it.
Robinson isn’t just a running back, he’s an offensive weapon. Robinson caught 60 passes for 805 yards and eight touchdowns during his three years at Texas but also averaged 1.52 yards per route run during his junior season. More impressively, Robinson had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.8 yards, meaning that his receptions came downfield.
That’s a contrast to Cook, who has put up solid receiving numbers but has made most of his production on screens with a career aDOT of -1.5 yards.
You may also think this is just numbers, but O’Connell mentioned pass-catching as something he looks for in a running back during his press conference at the scouting combine.
I think it’s skill sets. It’s that receiver who is great with the ball in their hands. They have punt return in their background. …How are we going to continuously apply pressure using our personnel to attack people? I think you’re seeing it, the impact that running backs can have on the passing game, the impact that receivers have via touching the ball behind the line of scrimmage in some capacity and then turning it into an explosive [play].
The Vikings could use a late-round pick to fill this role. But why take Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn, who at 5’5” is probably limited to a pass-catching only role, when you can have a six-foot, 220 lb. human unicorn you can run into the teeth of an opposing defense and then line up out wide on the next play?
It makes even more sense considering the Vikings have spent most of this offseason beefing up the running game. They signed a blocking tight end, extended their fullback, and flirting with David Montgomery before ultimately re-signing Alexander Mattison.
There is also something to be said for the four-back committees; while the good ones get attention, there are a lot of them that don’t work. Kyle Shanahan is the godfather of starting local community college stars at running back. But even he caved in by trading four draft picks – including this year’s second-rounder – for Christian McCaffrey.
At some point in the draft, decisions need to be more about talent than value. Taking a running back isn’t something teams should do often in the modern game of football, but considering where the Vikings are at and where they want to go, Robinson could be the pick that gets them over the top.
