Is there anything more simultaneously exciting and exhausting than the NFL rumor mill right before the draft?
It’s silly season, where NFL teams are trying to posture and bluff their way to draft weekend as they attempt to use the media in an ongoing chess match. There’s so much smoke going every which direction it’s hard to decide if it’s all a smokescreen or if we should believe where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
All we know is this latest report about Trey Lance has set Minnesota Vikings Twitter ablaze with speculation. It’s really heating up. We can only hope that what rises from the ashes is a Vikings team ready to move forward with a concrete plan at quarterback. (I really wanted to get another smoke/fire pun in there, but my creativity hit a cold streak.)
Speaking of cold streaks, man does that describe Trey Lance ever since he got drafted.
Remember all the talk about the athletic wonder from NDSU ready to take the Shanahan scheme to the next level by plugging his physical traits in with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive acumen? Well, we never really saw that. In two seasons we’ve seen eight games played, 102 passes with 54.9% completion percentage, five TDs, three INTs, and one snapped ankle in Week 2 of last season.
And while Lance was rehabbing, the San Francisco 49ers’ eyes drifted towards Brock Purdy. The spunky Mr. Irrelevant essentially became the girl in the ‘80s teen movie who took off her glasses and made Shanahan realize he was beautiful all along. That left the former third-overall pick looking for a date on prom night.
That creates an interesting dilemma for the Vikings. Do they bring Marshall’s favorite son home to reboot his career in purple? It’s a question that will require Kwesi Adofo-Mensah getting back to his Wall Street roots to answer. What’s the cost/benefit analysis and potential upside of this investment?
For what it’s worth, Lance was an exciting prospect when he came out. He wasn’t viewed as a finished product, but there was a lot to work with. For perspective, NFL.com’s Lance Zeirlein releases a numbered grading system on each prospect in his evaluation. He rates every player out of a possible eight points. If Trey Lance had been time vaulted two years into the future, he’d be Zierlein’s third-best QB prospect in this draft behind Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. Zierlein gave him a higher grade (6.47) than Anthony Richardson (6.4) and Will Levis (6.34). For Zierlein, the 6.40-6.49 rating means “has potential to be a good starter within two years.”
Granted, perhaps you could argue that Zierlein missed the mark here. We’re two years in and Lance is far from a good starter at this juncture. And the history of QBs emerging in Year 3 after showing almost nothing in Year 1-2 is pretty bleak. But is it fair to give him a full evaluation just yet?
We’ve seen four games with him as a starter, one of which was the Chicago monsoon/slip n’ slide. The other where he snapped his ankle in the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks. He was always going to sit behind Jimmy Garoppolo his rookie year. He was also poised to take the reins before his injury in Year 2. So have we really seen enough football to write him off just yet? I’d say no. The problem is, the Vikings may not have seen him play enough football to make a huge investment in him either.
But for the sake of discussion, let’s call the past two seasons a wash. Let’s also assume that sitting and learning a Shanahan offense that’s not all to different from Kevin O’Connell’s wasn’t detrimental to Lance’s development. Then we’ve got a 22-year-old quarterback with tools that were tantalizing enough to make San Francisco trade three first-round picks to obtain. He also has two years of experience learning from one of the most impressive offensive minds in the NFL. When you put it like that, Lance should get you excited!
You just have to disregard the fact the aforementioned offensive mind had two years to work with Lance, and is willing to trade him. That means San Francisco is either concerned he’ll never be the prospect he was before the injury, were incredibly disappointed in him once they got him, or that they just really like Purdy.
Ultimately, it all comes down to the asking price. Minnesota could be an excellent situation for Lance, or any young passer for that matter, but Lance is an unknown. And while I doubt San Francisco is looking to shop him for a bag of chips after making such a massive investment to obtain him, any compensation the Vikings give up for him will need to be modest.
But in a world where players taken third-overall players like Jeff Okudah are traded for late-round picks, is it that crazy to suggest Minnesota could get Lance for a third or a second in 2024? And even some Vikings fans may bristle at that level of compensation. But it’s certainly a bargain compared to the haul San Francisco thought he was worth two seasons ago.
Trey Lance’s talent as a prospect is comparable to that of rookies in this draft like Anthony Richardson or Will Levis, and he’s still only 22. And while he may have a bit more baggage at this point, he also could come at a much more reasonable price to acquire than trying to get a top-five pick in this draft.
If Kevin O’Connell sees enough potential in him to give him a chance to be developed behind Kirk Cousins, then that’s a risk worth taking for Minnesota. That would give them a clear succession plan at quarterback, and they may just strike gold if Lance can live up to his pre-draft billing.
