Art is a fluid form, not constrained, nor within limit. Jordan Addison considers himself to be a route artist, moving with finesse, swaying and weaving throughout the field. Regrettably, there are limits to quantifiable measures such as receiving yards, so we must ask:
What are reasonable expectations to place upon Jordan Addison’s first year?
Fans of the Minnesota Vikings were spoiled with the last first-round pick they used on a wide receiver, with Justin Jefferson putting up what was then the best statistical rookie receiver season since Bill Groman in 1960.
Jefferson kickstarted a run of excellence from young wide receivers to begin the new decade. From 2020 to 2022, wide receivers taken in the first round have finished with two top-five, four top-15, and five top-30 spots on the receiving yards leaderboard. Now Addison has the chance to join those players after Minnesota took him with the 23rd-overall pick this year.
2020-22 Rookie Receivers w/ 850+ RY:
- 2022 class: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London
- 2021 class: Ja’Marr Chase*, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown
- 2020 class: Justin Jefferson*, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy
* Indicates a top-five finish on the overall leaderboards.
Addison’s Player Comparison’s Rookie Seasons:
- DeVonta Smith: 64R, 916RY, 5TD (CBS Sports, Kyle Stackpole)
- Garrett Wilson: 83R, 1103RY, 4TD (Bleacher Report, Derrick Klassen)
Addison’s competitive drive is evident. He requested the playbook the moment he was drafted and immediately asked questions about how the Vikings would use him and where he would line up. There is no doubt he has the internal motivation and talent, and he will have one of the most favorable coverage situations in the NFL.
Addison is a silky runner, with the ability to manipulate defenders into oblivion or simply beat them with speed. His catch radius is impressive, and if defenses opt to bracket Jefferson, he will shred his single-coverage matchup.
What would Addison need to do to lead the rookie class in receiving yards? Take advantage of his situation. The three prior rookie leaders have had similar circumstances, and if history is any indication, Addison is primed to explode onto the scene.
- Garrett Wilson (83R, 1103RY, 4TD)
Wilson’s rookie season was the most impressive of the bunch, and he had several starting quarterbacks with no proven wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart. He managed to compile over 1,000 receiving yards in an offense featuring three starting quarterbacks. Wilson’s sole advantage was volume, with 627 total passing attempts between quarterbacks, and even that was tainted by an overall 56.9 completion percentage.
- Justin Jefferson: (88R, 1400RY, 7TD)
Jefferson replaced Stefon Diggs within an offense looking to make up ground lost by it’s defense. Jefferson had the company of Adam Thielen, an established and respected receiver in the league, and he was the beneficiary of an offense with 516 QB Attempts.
- Ja’Marr Chase: (81R, 1455RY, 13TD)
Chase entered the league and was immediately reunited with his college quarterback, Heisman winner and co-national champ Joe Burrow. Chase had the company of 2019’s rookie sensation, Tee Higgins, and dynamic slot receiver Tyler Boyd, and Chase was the beneficiary of an offense with 520 QB attempts.
Addison immediately slots in under the best receiver in the league and the reigning receiving yards champion. Therefore, the Vikings are giving Addison an opportunity not dissimilar to second-year player JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2018. Antonio Brown led the league in receiving yards and commanded the defense’s respect. That left Smith-Schuster free to feast on 166 targets while playing from the slot on 60% of snaps, accumulating 1426 yards and seven touchdowns.
Addison also has the advantage of a premier tight end in T.J. Hockenson and a formidable third receiver in K.J. Osborn.
Last year, Thielen averaged only 2.7 yards of separation per target, with the lowest YAC per reception of his career, zero receptions of 40-plus yards, and 1.08 YPRR at 32. Addison averaged 2.78 YPRR in 2022, with 2.64 YPRR throughout his entire collegiate career, and 7.0 YAC per reception in 2022.
Adam Thielen had 73 receptions for 766 receiving yards and six touchdowns on a 17% target share within the same system last year. In an offense of this volume, Addison will have plenty of opportunity to vastly improve on those measures set by the long-time standard bearer for the Vikings.
Ultimately, Addison should receive around 120 targets, haul in nearly 85, and accumulate 1,000 to 1,100 receiving yards with five touchdowns, putting him in prime position to be a Rookie of the Year candidate. Rarely is there a situation as perfect for a young wide receiver, and Jordan Addison has everything it takes to utilize it.
