If the Minnesota Twins are going to make a push for the post-season this year, they’re going to need a major boost at the August 1st trade deadline. But fans shouldn’t expect some mega-deal where the club ships away a top prospect or two for a known commodity. Instead, the Twins need to find a way to get Carlos Correa back to his healthy, effective self. As great as it would be to add a legitimate superstar bat to the middle of this lineup such as Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt, the club’s best bet for offensive improvement will come from the star shortstop they already have on the roster.
For this to happen, Correa will need to tap into what he did in the second half of last year. From the All Star break through the end of last season, the slugging shortstop hit a magnificent .304/.380/.486 with 23 extra-base hits in 66 games played. While the rest of the roster crumbled under the weight of a storm of injuries, Correa’s performance would have been good enough to push a healthy team to October’s doorstep. In that span, Correa boasted an eye-popping 149 wRC+, meaning his production was 49% better than a league-average player. In fact, his bat was the 10th-most potent in the American League by those standards.
That’s superstar-level production at a premium position. It’s one of many aspects that have been lacking for the 2023 Twins. It’s also a vital cog in their aspirations to reach the postseason, let alone make a deep playoff run.
One of Correa’s biggest downfalls this season has been his inability to cash in when there are men in scoring position. Yes, this has been an issue for the team as a whole, but the de facto leader of the clubhouse has seen his production completely plummet in these situations in this season’s first half. In these prime scoring opportunities, Correa has hit an anemic .164/.269/.313 (.583 OPS) with only seven extra base hits. His faulty 2023 approach seems to rear its ugly head when the lights are shining their brightest, as he has a brutal 22.6% infield fly percentage. There’s been much ballyhoo over giving away at-bats when various Twins players strike out, but the reality is that these infield pop-flies are just as damaging. It’s one of the facets of the just put the ball in play crowd that they fail to see or acknowledge.
Even with a mediocre first half in 2022, Correa had an overall slash line of .277/.364/.366 (730 OPS) with runners in scoring position. If he can even somewhat replicate those good-not-great numbers in this season’s remaining 11 weeks, it would be a major boost for a Twins lineup that is running out of air as the water level keeps rising. If he can produce at his career .270/.358/.446 (.805 OPS) clip in scoring opportunities, then the club can really get cooking with their intended game plan.
That game plan has seemingly been problematic for nearly every Twins slugger in 2023. So much so that the hitters are reportedly leading the team’s meetings when planning an offensive approach. It all came to a boiling point the Atlanta Braves stomped them in an agonizing three-game sweep, resulting in a players-only meeting.
That call to action may have clicked something into place with Correa, especially as it pertains to pitch selection throughout an at-bat. Since players started running the hitters’ meetings, Correa has batted .400 with two strikes, and has a .455 on-base percentage in those situations. He’s also batting .391 against starting pitchers, showing either an increase in preparation, execution, or both.
Is it a small sample size? Absolutely, but if this is the dawn of a breakout for Correa just as it was last year, the Twins would gladly take it. Arenado and Goldschmidt would be fantastic additions when looking at the season in a vacuum. Correa returning to form would not only be better than adding either of them, but it’s also far more likely to actually come to fruition.
Correa is healthier than he has been in years (knock on wood), he’s playing some of the best defense of his career and his sprint speed is a few ticks up from last year. Now it’s time for his bat to catch up with the rest of his game, and in doing so, push his team to playoff baseball. Sure, Correa can’t do it on his own, but his team also can’t do it without him.
