The Minnesota Twins are finally (maybe) in the driver’s seat to win the AL Central for the first time since 2020 and the first time in a full 162-game season. It has been a bumpy road to this point in the season. Although they are still hovering around .500, the team holds a 4.5-game lead in the division over the Cleveland Guardians.
The Twins were on pace for 90-plus wins after going 17-12 in April. Then their record fell to 29-27 by the end of May. But Minnesota isn’t .500 because they’re not playing well against winning teams. It’s actually the opposite. The Twins have a 23-18 record against the league’s worst division and a 26-31 record against teams with winning records. That seems bad, but consider that most teams also struggle against winning teams. Minnesota is 14-9 against non-AL Central teams with losing records. It’s been a weird season.
It’s been a topsy-turvy season in Minnesota following another up-and-down year in 2022. The 2023 Twins have been volatile, but they haven’t been inconsistent. After a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, they lost three of four last week against the struggling Detroit Tigers. Immediately after, Minnesota won a series on the road against the reigning NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies.
Nobody has embodied that agent of chaos mantra more than Emilio Pagán.
Pagán has not been a fan favorite during his time in Minnesota. It didn’t help that he replaced the team’s former closer after being acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade at the start of the 2022 season. During that span, he’s posted a 3.88 ERA, .220 opponent average, with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate, plus 3.85 FIP in 113.2 innings pitched.
So why has Pagán drawn the ire of so many Twins fans? Well,, like Minnesota’s above-average record, it’s been anything other than smooth. The biggest indictment against Pagán has been his pitching in high-leverage situations. Pagán has a -0.87 win probability added and a -0.78 clutch rating in Minnesota, according to FanGraphs.
Despite a good start to last season, Pagán ended the 2022 campaign with a -0.99 WPA and a 4.43 ERA. But Pagán’s underlying numbers indicate he has potential. His 116 stuff+ (ranking how “nasty” pitches are) was fifth-best on the Twins last year behind Griffin Jax, Jhoan Durán, and Caleb Thielbar. But he’s giving up too many home runs. A 1.71 HR/9 in 2022, which was the 12th-worst among relievers with at least 30 innings pitched last season.
Like most relievers, Pagán generally relies on two pitches. According to Baseball Savant, he uses a fastball (51.6 percent), cutter (31.8 percent), and mixes in a split finger (13.3 percent) through 2023. Last season, his cutter had a -8 run value. It wasn’t just pitch selection but pitch location. Pagán had an 83 percent meatball rate on the splitter (pitches thrown middle-middle) in 2022 which was above the 76.1 percent league-average mark.
But instead of letting Pagán go after a year, President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey re-upped with the reliever and gave him a raise. The Twins gave Pagán a one-year, $3.5 million deal in the offseason. Despite starting in low leverage, injuries and regression from several bullpen arms thrust Pagán back into high leverage.
Minnesota’s lineup has mirrored Pagán’s ups and downs this season. The lineup’s collective 101 OPS+ isn’t horrible, but much worse when you consider the Twins have 16 losses when allowing three or fewer runs. Part of the root cause hasn’t been so much baserunners as it’s been hitting them in. A .246 batting average with runners in scoring position hasn’t allowed the lineup to capitalize when they needed to.
And of course, what goes down must always come right back up. The offense has been one of the league’s best since the All-Star break. 147 runs scored is good for third-best in the American League, and a 122 team wRC+ is fifth-best in all of baseball during that span. The strikeouts are still high. Minnesota’s 27.4 percent team strikeout rate is the fourth-worst in the league. Still, the offense is scoring more runs, and Twins fans have learned to take the good with the bad.
That’s been the second half story of Pagán, too. He has a 1.26 ERA since the mid-season point. Most importantly, his 0.63 HR/9 has been huge at keeping the ball in the yard. His 8.8 percent barrel rate is down a full percent from the year before. A .085 opponent average and a 0.56 WHIP.
Pagán has been one of Minnesota’s most reliable relievers over the last month. During this span, he has a 0.81 WPA coming into higher leverage situations. The cutter has been a better pitch, going up to a 5-run value while being thrown 12 percent more than in 2022.
Rise up, Pagán truthers! The Twins would be in a worse spot without him. However, there are some signs that Pagán won’t maintain this level of play. Despite the low ERA, his 3.20 FIP shows he may be producing above his weight. He’s giving up fewer home runs even though his 90.3 percent meatball rate is bigger than last year. Both of Pagán’s other pitches have regressed in pitch value.
So what do the Twins do with a lineup, along with a high-leverage reliever, that occasionally play well but is completely volatile? Honestly, there is nothing you really can do but ride them until the wheels fall off. It sounds calming and gut-wrenching at the same time. At some point, Minnesota’s offense or Pagán could come crumbling down during the stretch run and potentially the postseason. At this point in the campaign, though, that is the best Twins fans have to hope for.
The 2023 Minnesota Twins are either just an average .500 club in a bad division or a team of destiny. The Twins could ride a high into the postseason and actually win their first playoff game in two decades, or they could blow up in spectacular fashion. For better or worse, it seems like Pagán is going to be right in the middle of the entire picture.
