Winning their first postseason game and series since 2004 won’t be enough for this version of the Minnesota Twins. Like their basketball brethren across Interstate 394, their win(s) over the Toronto Blue Jays should be treated as the beginning. Royce Lewis has arrived, there’s a new ace in town, and the youth is promising. The Twins have a chance to show some real character development, and it starts with signing a free agent to an expensive long-term contract.
Sonny Gray’s 2023 season was remarkable in several ways. He’s a likely AL Cy Young finalist after being named an All-Star in July. He also pitched the most innings of his career since 2015 when he was with the Oakland Athletics, and he has faced more batters in that dogged third time through the order (TTTO) than since that 2015 season. Despite tensions between Gray and manager Rocco Baldelli earlier in the season, things seemed to have mellowed in their relationship.
Gray has made it clear that he wants to pitch deep into ballgames. After Baldelli took him out after the fourth inning in a June 8-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers, Gray and Baldelli had a heated exchange. Gray explained he “felt like I was just competing. Obviously, I didn’t have my best stuff. … I was trying to bear down, and I was just trying to stay in the fight.”
Gray’s competitive drive clashed with Baldelli’s managerial style. Gray has well-documented issues late in games. His third-time-through-the-order stats have loomed over for most of his career.
Whether or not there’s any tangible explanation for his struggles, they’ve been a factor during Gray’s time in Minnesota. But contrary to the emotions he’s displayed the last two years, Baldelli has given Gray more opportunities against TTTO batters this season than Gray’s other managers have in the past. In addition, Gray has performed better in those situations.
Gray has allowed only a .208 average, .292 OBP, and a minuscule .281 wOBA facing the order a third time. Therefore, Gray’s 4.85 ERA in the TTTO does not tell the entire story.
Part of that success may be an overflow from his stellar play in general. Long removed from his New York Yankees days before he was able to fully realize himself, Gray’s increased sweeper usage, addition of a cutter, and defining curveball helped him reach a new level.
Already a master pitch tunneler with his deep arsenal, Gray’s cutter helps “bridge the gap” between his four-seamer and sweeper. He determined there was too large of a gap between the induced vertical break of those two pitches, so the introduction of a middle-ground pitch would theoretically help him fool batters. It seemed to work.
Gray throws his cutter like a hard slider, down and away from righties. The pitch succeeded at generating whiffs (13.5% swinging strike rate) and inducing ground balls (47.6%-23.8% GB-FB rate). It became arguably his third-best pitch behind his sweeper and curveball, with an expected wOBA of .298.
The Twins have the best version of Sonny Gray. He would no doubt shine elsewhere, which is why Minnesota must extend him.
Minnesota’s fledgling offense was the third-best in baseball by OPS after the All-Star break. They also have some offensive firepower in the system. The trio of 2023 fifth-overall pick Walker Jenkins, 2022 eighth-overall pick Brooks Lee, and international signee Emmanuel Rodriguez have garnered attention in top prospect lists. The young-ish analytically crafted duo of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober look like future mainstays of the rotation behind ace Pablo López.
However, the rotation is uncertain behind López, Ryan, and Ober. Louie Varland pitched 68 innings as a starter in his second season, which will prepare him to enter the rotation for good next season. However, Varland is not an established starter like Gray. Chris Paddack pitched 3.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs coming off Tommy John surgery. But like Varland, he’s not a pitcher of Gray’s caliber.
Gray is a 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, one strikeout per inning pitcher. He had a 154 ERA+ for the season, meaning his ERA was 54% better than the average starter. Gray’s 2.83 FIP confirms his season wasn’t lucky or unlucky because of the defensive play behind him.
If there’s any negative regression coming his way next season, it’d happen on the long ball. He had an absurdly low home run to fly ball rate. Only 5.9% of the fly balls he gave up went yard, and the MLB average was 15.3%. He didn’t give up any home runs on the sweeper, which generated his low number in 2023. If he continues to be the tunneling east-west pitcher he was this year, he’ll probably continue to silence sluggers.
Gray uses both his four-seamer and two-seamer well, running in on batter’s hands where they can’t do much with them anyway. His horizontal-heavy pop-up-inducing sweeper will also prevent home runs. He’s ditched the more vertically-moving slider he used to throw that was more vulnerable.
Gray is at the top of his game statistically. However, if he’s hit his apex, does that mean he’s inevitably going to decline? He’s 33 years old and will be 34 next season. He’ll have to slow down at some point. Last year, he was barely able to get past 80 pitches per start. So how big of an extension should the Twins offer him?
There are a number of ways to try and predict when or how a pitcher’s career will begin to decline. Gray is athletic and has eclipsed 119 or more innings in each of the last five full seasons, and he remained healthy during the COVID-shortened season in 2020. He also has avoided serious injuries.
Other statistics that indicate future decline don’t predict one for Gray. His strikeout and walk rates have remained stable, and his four-seamer velocity was the highest it’s been since 2019. The 92.9 mph average he registered in 2023 is not far behind his 93.7 mph average in 2015. The only worry point for Gray is his track record before joining the Twins.
It would make sense for pitchers who pitch have large workloads before turning 25 would have shorter careers than those who pitch fewer innings before turning 25. Wear and tear accumulated early on hamper pitchers as they get older. It’s the same concern for running backs as they age. Because of larger workloads in college or to begin their careers, people often expect running backs to retire earlier, whether from injury or general stress on the body.
It’s tough to say if the same rings true for pitchers. Innings pitched before 25 years old is the only statistic that had a significant relationship in determining pitcher career length, according to this 2016 study. The study concludes that more innings before age 25 correlate to more innings after (longer careers). Unfortunately, it only truly relays that pitchers that stick around once they reach the majors or simply get called up earlier are the cream of the crop.
Gray had a heavy workload before age 25 (283 major league innings, 418.1 college and minor league innings). Based on the study, his 283 major league innings suggested he’d have a long and fruitful post-age 25 career. It does not answer the question, When can we expect Gray’s long career to end?
It may not be for a while.
Circling back to his steady four-seamer velocity, Gray is outperforming expectations. He’s supposed to be throwing 90-91 mph.
With his velocity intact and skills still developing, Gray may remain at or just beneath this level for a few more years. He may not get as deep into games as he’d like, but his proven ability could solidify a rotation on a team looking for more.
The perfect contract extension would look something like this:
- One year guaranteed, ~$20 million
- Second- and third-year team options, ~$20 million each
Minnesota would be paying Gray similarly to what the Blue Jays paid Chris Bassitt (3.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 2022) last year. His contract is officially for three-year, $63 million.
The most likely extension Gray’s camp would support would be:
- All years non-team option, though player options would be ideal
- ~$20-25 million AAV
The Twins have a tough choice. Gray “picked” the right year to have such a season. He is aging, and he’s not going deep into games, but his skills are among the best in baseball.
