Ever since the Minnesota Twins traded Johan Santana after the 2007 season, they have spent the next decade and a half seeking their next franchise ace. Francisco Liriano looked like Santana’s heir apparent before shoulder injuries and regression halted his momentum. Truthfully, they haven’t only been looking for an ace. The Twins have had trouble filling out a competent pitching staff. From 2008 to 2022, Minnesota’s 4.43 team ERA ranks 27th in baseball.
In 2016, José Berríos was Minnesota’s most highly regarded pitching prospect in years. His raw stuff and swing-and-miss potential had Twins fans hoping they could have their next Santana-level starter. A year later, the Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine so they could modernize Minnesota’s pitching development and philosophies. It was a good development for Berríos, who had a difficult start to his major league career, posting an 8.02 ERA in 58.1 innings through 14 starts in 2016.
From 2017 to 2021, Berríos matured into the team’s top starting pitcher. He threw 723 innings in that four-plus season span with 730 strikeouts and a 3.76 ERA. However, he was in line for an extension, and the Twins traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. At the time, it wasn’t a good look for Minnesota, especially after Berríos agreed to a seven-year, $131 million extension in Toronto. It’s a large price tag, but the Twins had the salary space to easily provide for their best homegrown pitcher in decades. Berrios had become a solid pitcher in Minnesota but still hadn’t quite reached that next step of becoming a league-wide “ace”.
Sonny Gray joined Minnesota’s starting staff in 2022. And with Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the rotation, the Twins built a little more depth than in years past. Still, they were in need of a young ace who could lead the starting staff for the next five years. The controversial Luis Arraez trade netted Minnesota Pablo López, their new ace. López hasn’t just been great this season, he can become the pitcher the fans wanted Berríos to be and then some. López, 27, is one year younger than Berríos, throws just as hard, and boasts an equal amount of raw stuff as the Twins’ former top pitching prospect.
He was an above-average pitcher with the Miami Marlins with a 3.94 ERA and averaged 8.6 K/9 in South Beach. The Twins were able to take López and increase his production by adding a sweeper. Minnesota also further diversified his pitch arsenal to focus less on throwing fastballs and changeups and emphasize his breaking pitches. Those adjustments pushed López to a career season, with a 3.81 ERA and a career-best 11 K/9 in 141.2 innings to push López to his first ever All-Star Game this year. López is second in the American League with 173 strikeouts and also ranks second in innings throughout the junior circuit.
Berríos is having a good bounce-back season after struggling since coming to Toronto. He had a 4.75 ERA and .321 batting average on balls in play since joining the Blue Jays in August of 2021 through 2022. Berrios now bumped his production back up to a 3.38 ERA with a .291 BABIP in 2023. It’s a positive step for Berríos, but he still isn’t Toronto’s ace. That title goes to Kevin Gausman, who only has a four-strikeout advantage over López for the AL lead. Berríos sits 12th in the AL with 129 strikeouts and his 136 innings is good for sixth-best. Again good numbers, but López has been noticeably better.
Yeah, most of the fanbase has come around to the idea that López is a top-of-the-rotation caliber pitcher. So how does the López addition stack up with the loss of Berríos? After all, Minnesota’s return of Martin and Woods-Richardson from Toronto is looking less valuable by the day. The Twins also gave up the 2022 (and likely 2023) batting champion in Arraez to get López.
On the surface, it seems like both pitchers are fairly similar in terms of production. Both are innings-eating, strikeout-throwing pitchers. They both do share each other’s biggest flaw of home runs and random blow-up innings in starts. López has a 1 HR/9 and 2.5 BB/9 career rates while Berríos has a 1.2 HR/9 and 2.7 BB/9 career clips.
Berríos has been consistently good over his eight big-league seasons. His floor is set, but it also seems like his ceiling has also been set at good but not great. Berríos’ 103 career ERA+ isn’t that off from López’s 107 career ERA+, but López is ascending with the Twins while Berríos has plateaued.
López is having a career year in 2023. A 3.3 fWAR has already surpassed his career high of 2.8 fWAR last season. Still, his underlying numbers suggest that he’s been pitching even better. Despite a 3.81 ERA, López has a 3.08 xERA and a 3.28 fielding independent pitching (FIP), showing that he’s been at an ace level for most of the season. If it weren’t for an eight-start stretch in late May/early June where he gave up 28 runs with just a .682 OPS allowed, López would have the frontline numbers and full body of work to show he’s been the ace the Twins have been searching for.
Berríos is having that bounce-back season that he needs. A 2.4 fWAR is again good but not enough to match López. At the same time, there are some hints that it’s not a complete turnaround. A 4.56 xERA and 3.89 FIP indicated that regression could take place.
Another plus of the López addition is that the Twins could extend him past next season. The two sides agreed on a four-year, $73.5 million contract extension to stay in Minnesota through the 2027 season. Gray and Kenta Maeda have been good frontline starters since 2020. However, López has the ability to give the teams multiple consecutive seasons of ace-caliber pitching for the foreseeable future.
Could the Twins have been alright paying that money to Berríos instead of López if it meant keeping Arraez? It’s possible, but the contract Minnesota signed López to is more advantageous than the Berríos deal. The Twins were able to get a pitcher with a higher ceiling than Berríos. López is also on a better contract.
The average annual value of López ($18.4 million) is still slightly cheaper than Berríos ($18.7 million). Berríos also has an opt-out after 2026, which means he could leave if he continues to pitch well and test free agency. Or he could opt back in at $24 million per year for the next two seasons if he struggles. Meanwhile, López is locked in with the Twins through 2027.
The Twins have spent the last 15 seasons looking for a new ace. In a roundabout way, Minnesota swapped a good pitcher in Berríos for a great one in López. While López still has a long way to go before reaching Santana territory, he is definitely on the right track to become the ace pitcher Twins fans have been waiting for.
