It’s mid-June it’s an exciting time to be a fan. Spencer Steer is starting to break out as a major leaguer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand is slugging his way through Triple-A. Hunter Greene is on the injured list, but he’s expected to be back soon. And a beloved veteran superstar has returned just as his team has ripped off a 12-game winning streak.
If you’ve been paying attention this year, you know that this is the current state of the Cincinnati Reds. But back in Minnesota, it looks like an alternate universe because the Reds have become the “Bizarro Twins.”
It began in the summer of 2017 when Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were preparing for their first draft. High school phenom Hunter Greene was the heavy favorite to be taken with the first overall pick. Sports Illustrated dubbed him as “The star that baseball needs.”
Nobody would have been upset if the Twins took Greene at the top of the draft. However, there were other factors at play. The first overall pick in the draft had a slot value of $7.77 million, but it was possible that Greene would want a higher bonus to sign with the Twins. To sign their draft picks after taking Greene, they may have had to pay over slot to get him to agree to terms on a contract. This would take away from their overall pool of $14.1 million to sign their draft picks and limit their options later in the draft.
It should be noted that the Twins were in full rebuild mode coming into that draft, cleaning up the total system failure from the end of Terry Ryan’s second stint. By saving more money, Minnesota could try to find a high-impact talent that fell due to signability later in the draft. That way, they could add depth to an organization that ranked 21st in Baseball America’s organizational rankings at the beginning of the 2017 season.
“It’s really a portfolio of players,” Falvey told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune before the draft. “You want to add as many upside assets as you can. It’s the lifeblood of the organization.”
With that in mind, the Twins used the same strategy the Houston Astros did in 2012. Although draft pundits regarded Byron Buxton as the top prospect, the Astros took Correa with the first-overall pick to save some of their money for the later rounds. Houston’s strategy helped them sign Lance McCullers, who they selected with the 41st overall pick and signed with a $2.5 million bonus.
In 2017, the Twins took Royce Lewis with the first-overall pick and selected Brent Rooker 35th overall. The Twins signed both players, and they became top prospects who are flashing upside in the majors. But it’s curious to think how Greene would have turned out in Minnesota — not only due to his upside but how it affected the Twins-Reds alternate universe.
Green only made 21 starts in his first two seasons of professional baseball before needing Tommy John surgery. After a year of recovery and another year where MLB canceled the minor-league season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Greene returned by posting a 1.98 ERA in seven Double-A starts. He posted a 2.57 ERA in three Triple-A starts the following season before being called up in 2022. Through 17 career starts, Greene has a 7-17 record with a 4.25 ERA. However, his 11.9 K/9 rate and 199 innings pitched would have been perfect for a team that’s been starving for starting pitching.
This makes it fair to wonder how Greene would have altered the Twins’ fate, especially considering the two recent deals the Twins made with Cincinnati to bolster their rotation.
In March 2022, the Twins sent their 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Gray has been a solid starter for the Twins, posting a 12-6 record and 2.87 ERA in 39 starts. However, Petty is Cincinnati’s second-ranked pitching prospect and No. 7 prospect overall according to MLB.com.
At 20 years old, Petty also has a 1.29 ERA in seven starts (28 innings) at High-A Dayton and appears to be a key piece of Cincinnati’s future.
In July 2022, the Reds sent Tyler Mahle to Minnesota for Steer, Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar. Hajjar has dealt with shoulder issues, and Cincinnati traded him to the Cleveland Guardians. However, Steer and Encarnacion-Strand have made this trade lopsided. Steer is hitting .282/.368/.493 with 12 home runs in 76 games, and Encarnacion-Strand is hitting .329/.403/.639 with 17 home runs and 49 RBI in 53 Triple-A games.
With both players either looking like staples for years to come, Twins fans have a reason to be upset. But there are also a few things to consider when looking at these trades.
The first is the backdrop that surrounded the deals. The Twins stumbled into having Carlos Correa for one season and they had to do everything they could to compete, especially sitting in first place at the trade deadline.
The other factor to consider is that the players involved in these deals were homegrown talents selected by the current front office. Petty was a former first-round pick. Steer was a third-round pick in 2019, and they took Encarnacion-Strand in the fourth round of the 2021 draft. At the very least, they’ve drafted and developed talent well.
A look at the organizational depth chart also shows the Twins have excelled at scouting talent. Lewis, Edouard Julien and Bailey Ober have all seized prominent roles this season. Other prospects like Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are scrapping for an opportunity. Deeper in the organization, players like Brooks Lee, Marco Raya and David Festa are top-10 prospects rising through the system. All this depth should give Twins fans hope, especially because they hold the 5th-overall pick in next month’s draft.
Still, it’s easy for Twins fans to wonder what could have been. If Steer stuck around, would it ease the pain of trading Luis Arraez? Or if Encarnacion-Strand was blowing through Triple-A, would the Twins have a bat to boost their struggling lineup?
Perhaps the biggest what-if is on the mound where Greene and Petty could have joined Joe Ryan to form a dominant top of the rotation.
All of these things are good questions but Twins fans are seeing it play out in Cincinnati. With a division that is just as wide open, the Reds have seized their opportunity and running away from the pack. With the Twins struggling to stay over .500, it truly is a bizarro world. One that could get even stranger if the Reds happen to win a playoff game.
