There was a time when Emilio Pagan’s days looked numbered.
Pagán had just wrapped up his first season with the Minnesota Twins and posted a 4.43 ERA while allowing 12 home runs. Although he posted a 2.16 ERA and allowed only one home run in his final 13 appearances, many believed there was no way he’d be back for the 2023 season.
Max Kepler was in a similar situation. After posting a career year in 2019, Kepler hit .220/.314/.392 in the three following seasons. After posting a career-low OPS in 2022, people included Kepler’s name in trade rumors because Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach were ready to take over.
There’s an alternate universe where Pagán and Kepler are no longer in Minnesota. But as the Twins head down the stretch, both are playing pivotal roles. While the front office can be praised for their patience, their loyalty to these players could be a detriment for the future as they try to win the AL Central and end their 18-game postseason losing streak.
It starts with Pagán, who they brought back on a one-year deal this offseason. When they used him in lower leverage roles, Pagán allowed only one run over his first 6.1 innings this season. However, he allowed six runs in an Apr. 20 outing against the Boston Red Sox, halting that momentum.
Since then, Pagán has turned in plenty of great outings, but the bad ones get seared into Twins fans’ brains. Pagán served up a grand slam to James Outman in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 17 and allowed a three-run homer to Cavan Biggio in a June 11 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Most recently, Pagán allowed a two-run home run to Julio Rodriguez that played a key role in a July 25 loss to the Seattle Mariners. However, it didn’t persuade the front office to acquire a reliever at the trade deadline.
That’s because Pagán is having a bounce-back season by most accounts, posting a 3.31 ERA over 49 innings. While there has been poor performance mixed in, Pagán has benefitted from positive regression, allowing only four home runs compared to 12 a year ago.
With Brock Stewart suffering a setback in his recovery from an elbow injury, Pagán has ascended to one of Minnesota’s top relief arms. He sits behind Griffin Jax, who required his own bit of patience through an early season slump, and Jhoan Duran.
But while Pagán’s redemption arc has been one key story for the Twins this season, so has Kepler’s.
The Twins couldn’t find a trade partner for Kepler last winter and hoped he would benefit from MLB’s elimination of the shift. After starting the season in an 0-for-13 slump, Kepler hit his first home run of the season. However, he landed on the injured list with right patellar tendinitis.
Kepler returned on Apr. 15, but he didn’t look anywhere near his 2019 form. He hit .229/.320/.470 with five homers in 24 games before returning to the injured list. Kepler returned for a second time on May 29, but at this point, it appeared like he was wearing out his welcome.
Kepler drew Rocco Baldelli‘s ire after missing a double steal in a June 8 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. Soon after, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reported that Kepler refused to play center field even though the Twins were using Byron Buxton as a designated hitter and Michael A. Taylor was stretched into a full-time role.
It appeared that Kepler’s days were numbered again. But Kepler had another renaissance after they recalled Wallner on July 17, hitting .324/.355/.624 with six homers and 12 RBI in his last 20 games.
Kepler’s resurgence can be seen as more vindication for the front office. They can pair him with a red-hot Wallner in the middle of the lineup. While that duo paid off with a pair of ninth-inning home runs in Sunday’s win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota’s patience could also have a detrimental effect as they head down the stretch.
The Twins were adamant with their support of Kepler even as Wallner was destroying Triple-A pitching in St. Paul. After getting sent down on May 30, Wallner went on a rampage, hitting .308/.415/.559 with seven homers and 31 RBI over 36 games before returning to the majors.
Kepler and Wallner are raking in the middle of the same lineup, while the Twins hang onto their lead in the AL Central. Sure, they own a 5.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians after Monday night’s win in Detroit. Still, having Wallner raking in the majors could have added a few more wins and had the Twins pushing for a bye in the first round of the postseason.
Instead, the Twins will be in a much tighter three-game series in the Wild Card round, battling a six-seed that could have won their division by double digits if they weren’t in the AL Central.
The Twins’ patience has also dragged them down in other areas. Joey Gallo is hitting .142/.263/.306 with six homers in his past 51 games, but he still gets regular playing time in the outfield, at first base and pinch-hitting appearances.
However, Minnesota’s patience could also play out negatively as the Twins head down the stretch. While Pagán has mostly avoided the disastrous outings that plagued him a year ago, he still ranks 57th among relievers with a -0.8 win probability added (WPA) since the start of the 2022 season.
Like most things with the Twins, we really won’t know anything until they get to October. If Pagán and Kepler are key pieces to a deep postseason run, the front office will get their credit for keeping them on the roster. If Pagán has a bad outing or Kepler cools off, it will be seen as a missed opportunity to add players that could get the job done.
