Twins

Now Is Not the Time To Trade Christian Vázquez

Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins were one of the busiest teams in baseball last offseason. They re-signed Carlos Correa and traded for Kyle Farmer and Pablo López. In doing so, they brought in veteran leadership and high-end talent to the Twin Cities. However, they plugged one of their quieter but important holes at catcher. Nearly one year ago, the Twins got their man behind the plate, signing Christian Vázquez to a 3-year, $30 million contract.

Vázquez is a two-time World Series champion they brought in as the team’s primary catcher over Ryan Jeffers. They paid Vázquez like an everyday catcher. He had a career .261/.310/.386 slash line with 55 career home runs and 84 wRC+ after the 2022 season. Vázquez isn’t flashy, but he was the best catcher in last year’s free-agent class. He’s a pro’s pro behind the plate calling games, pitch framing, and throwing out runners.

But Vázquez didn’t meet expectations last season. He slashed .223/.280/.318 with only 6 home runs and a 66 wRC+. Vázquez’s defense and leadership were there, but he took too long to start hitting. Jeffers had a career year, taking Vázquez’s place as the primary catcher and making him the secondary option. That didn’t mean much in the regular season, but the Twins started Jeffers behind the dish in all six playoff games.

An emerging catcher in Jeffers, combined with Vázquez’s poor first year under an expensive contract, could signal the end of his time in Minnesota. The Twins are cutting payroll and don’t have much flexibility as currently constructed. Fans and media suggest that the Twins could move on from Vázquez early. That would save some salary space and open the spot for an up-and-comer like 24-year-old Jair Camargo, who had an excellent season with Triple-A St. Paul last year.

It’s entirely plausible that the Twins move on from Vázquez. The Josh Donaldson trade exemplifies Derek Falvey dumping a contract early to create roster flexibility. However, Vázquez can still offer value in 2024.

Last year was Vázquez’s worst year in five seasons, so he won’t have a robust trade market. Teams that pursued him last offseason probably aren’t eager to give up assets to take on the remainder of his contract. The Twins could offer to pay for part of Vázquez’s remaining salary to get some assets in the deal. But any trade for Vázquez alone would almost certainly be a salary dump.

It doesn’t really make sense for the Twins to shed a major-league player for low-level minor leaguers. Taking on some of the contract maybe could net a marginally better prospect. But at that point, Minnesota will still be paying half of Vázquez’s contract to play against them when they’re in a win-now mode. Therefore, it might make more sense for the Twins to keep Vázquez and see if he can progress back to his career averages. Outside of Camargo, there isn’t much depth in the farm system at catcher. In contrast, they can trade utilityman Kyle Farmer due to payroll flexibility because of the surplus of young infielders in the organization.

If the Twins stick with Vázquez, the depth he brings would be useful. Having flexibility and veterans at key positions, including catcher, was a big reason the Twins reached the postseason last year.

Falvey’s Twins teams have always had two catchers capable of playing for long stretches. They have used Jason Castro, Mitch Garver, Jeffers, and Vázquez as parts of a tandem more than a traditional starter-backup role. Treating the team’s backstops that way has been successful in Minnesota. Since 2017, Twins catchers have recorded 161 home runs (7th), a .721 OPS (9th), 88.5 MPH average exit velocity (T-6th), and 97 wRC+ (6th). As a veteran catcher, Vázquez will still be helpful in a secondary catching role because he can be trusted in small doses to be still productive while also giving Jeffers periodic rest throughout the season to ensure that both players are rested enough to contribute offensively.

Vázquez needs to improve at the plate, though. He will be 33 on Opening Day, and a catcher’s play tends to decline in their mid-30s. That’s alarming, especially when he couldn’t hit fastballs last year. Vázquez’s 23.5 whiff percentage off of heaters a year ago was a career-worst, while his 87.7 MPH average exit velocity is the lowest off the fastball since 2017. Despite a bad first half, Vázquez salvaged some of his offensive numbers in the second half of 2023 with a .653 OPS and 78 wOPS+. A glass-half-full perspective could say that his second season in Minnesota might be more comfortable for him at the plate than the year before.

Health is also a big factor in terms of depth. Vázquez played in 102 games, and Jeffers played in 96 games in 2023. Both missed some time here and there but were each generally healthy last season. If the Twins jettisoned Vázquez and relied on Jeffers and Camargo alone, the team would be gambling on another year of good health from both catchers.

Injuries can disrupt the best-laid plans. In 2022, Jeffers suffered a thumb injury and missed most of the second half of the season. Primary catcher Gary Sánchez filled in with a rotating panel of reserve catchers, including Caleb Hamilton and Sandy León. Retaining Vázquez ensures the Twins have an alternative if either catcher gets hurt. Camargo would fill in instead of a minor-league catcher who may not be ready for the majors.

If Camargo proves capable of being the secondary catcher behind Jeffers, the Twins can still move Vázquez at the 2024 trade deadline or next offseason. Trading Vázquez at the deadline or next offseason will make his contract easier to dump, even if his production doesn’t return to his career averages, because his contract will essentially be a one-year deal. The contract will have less salary left, and more teams may be willing to take it on as an expiring contract.

Being able to hit consistently is important for catchers, though, and defense is still a crucial part of the game. Jeffers has taken big strides in his defensive abilities, but Vázquez is still the better catcher defensively. He tied for 15th in baseball with 17 runners thrown out on the bases in 2023. As a pitch framer, Vázquez was at 3 catcher framing runs (18th-best in MLB) last season compared to Jeffers, who was -4 CFR (31st).

Christian Vázquez has yet to live up to the multi-year contract he signed last December. His fate in Minnesota may already be sealed, considering he didn’t play in the postseason last year. They may need to cut him to reduce payroll. But Vázquez still brings enough value to justify keeping around for next season. A veteran who brings stability, leadership, and depth to one of baseball’s most finicky positions can be worth the extra salary. The Twins may be stuck with Vázquez, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a valuable part of the team next year.

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