Few fans predicted Sonny Gray’s acquisition and even fewer saw the Carlos Correa signing coming. However, many expected the Minnesota Twins’ rotation to be a major weak point last year. Rocco Baldelli trotted out Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, and Josh Winder a combined 65 times for a total of 309.2 innings last year. The three of them had ERAs of 4.56, 4.89, and 4.70, respectively. Only Winder remains on the roster; the other two have moved on to other clubs.
While all of them have had stretches of success in their careers, injecting some new talent into the rotation was a dire need past offseason. Having 2022 midseason acquisition Tyler Mahle for a full season and a healthy Kenta Maeda were great first steps. However, the desire for a “true ace” persisted. Unfortunately, those kinds of players don’t develop in the minors overnight, and it’s difficult to wrestle them out of opposing clubhouses. It took an AL batting champion amount of assets to put Pablo López in a Twins uniform.
López has had issues staying healthy, but last year he rode his 4-seamer and changeup to much success with the Miami Marlins. However, he did not have an elite swing-and-miss pitch. López’s curveball managed a 39% whiff rate, but he only threw it 8% of the time. Pitchers without great strikeout numbers usually need league-best top-of-the-pack ground ball rates to become elite. López has managed a 48.5% ground ball rate in his career, which is better than the league-wide 44.8%.
He could have carried on with his mix, but López opted to follow the trends of the times and develop a sweeper. His cutter, despite being of the sub-90 mph type, did not have much movement. Opponents often hammered the pitch; López gave up a .321 batting average and .696 slugging percentage. Considering the relative ineffectiveness of the pitch, which complemented along with his already healthy repertoire, it made sense to add the sweeper.
His addition of a hard glove-side breaking pitch was intuitive. López has a couple of arm-side moving pitches already in the form of his changeup and sinker (his changeup has a spectacular 15.7 inches of horizontal movement). His curveball has also been wonderful with its more-than-average drop (51.3 inches this season). Rather than having a more traditional slider, López is able to have his ball move in all directions.
The results of this new offering cannot be understated. It’s his leading strikeout pitch and by far his best whiff-rate offering. A whiff rate of 40% or higher is generally considered a “good” number, or at least it is in this neck of the woods. López’s sweeper currently has a 60.6% whiff rate. That’s not likely to be sustainable, as batters will need time to adjust to the new-and-improved López. However, with the surrounding pitch mix and the pure stuff of it, his sweeper will elevate him to the upper echelon of MLB pitchers.
The sweeper wasn’t enough for him, though. His fastball also got a makeover. López had a slightly more side-armed release last year. It may seem minimal, but the spin direction of his fastball has changed from 1:15 to 1:00. Not only has he been able to achieve longer extension to help make his fastball appear faster, but he’s also added a couple of ticks of velocity. Partly because of his enhanced repertoire, Lopez doesn’t have to rely on movement on his fastball to make batters miss. The increase in velocity from 93.6 mph last year to 95.3 this year frees him up to challenge batters.
The only thing missing with his fastball is spin efficiency, but now we’re getting picky. It’s near impossible to min-max a pitcher’s numbers, let alone in the span of one offseason. Besides, pitching coaches don’t always need to tamper with the unique grips, releases, and quirks of each pitcher.
López gets around 2300 RPMs on his 4-seamer, but only about 75% of his spin is useful. Should it be possible, and it may not be due to the fact that every pitcher is different, unlocking all of his RPMs could allow him to have essentially four directions of movement. He currently has too much gyro-spin, sometimes coined “useless spin” that moves perpendicular to his desired spin in the direction he’s throwing. Considering he still throws slightly side-armed, this is to be expected. In the meantime, López will be an ace-level starter for the Twins.
