The Moneyball movie is about the Minnesota Twins if you watch it from a certain point of view. In one of the final scenes, Eddie Guardado celebrates on the mound as he closes out the Oakland A’s in the 2002 ALDS. Michael Lewis’ book resonated with baseball fans and business people throughout the world because he explained the concepts the A’s used to win in an unfair game. The cast was great, led by Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, and it built drama even though viewers knew the result.
Baseball and other sports teams have used the A’s concepts to build contenders. The Boston Red Sox famously did after trying to pry Billy Beane from Oakland. Minnesota’s front office uses similar analytics to construct the roster, and they have finally broken through. The Twins won their first playoff game since beating the New York Yankees in 2004 and their first postseason series since topping the Moneyball A’s in 2002. It’s been a long time.
Minnesota’s lack of playoff success may feel like a curse. It didn’t help that umpire Phil Cuzzi blew a call on Joe Mauer’s rope down the left field line or that unique circumstances forced them to start Brian Duensing and Randy Dobnak in playoff games. Losing 18 straight games is statistically improbable, but it’s not supernatural. Some of it involves playing in a mid-sized market and occasionally not facing much competition in the AL Central. But the Kansas City Royals won the World Series in 2015, and the Detroit Tigers (2012) and Cleveland Guardians (2016) reached it recently.
The most straightforward explanation for Minnesota’s lack of playoff success is that this is the first year they’ve had a superstar shortstop and All-Stars in their rotation. Last year, they didn’t have the depth to finish the season atop the AL Central. They rectified that, retained Carlos Correa, and traded for Pablo López. Plantar fasciitis sapped Correa’s production at the plate (.230/.312/.399), but he remained a solid defensive player. This year, López and Sonny Gray made the All-Star team, and Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda rounded out the rotation. The bullpen looked shaky at this time, but Jhoan Duran held down the closer spot, and it rounded out going into the playoffs.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine built the roster using some of Cleveland and Oakland’s DNA. Like the Guardians, they traded for pitching. Aside from Ober, a developmental success story (12th round, 2017), Minnesota took risks in the trade market to fill out the rotation. They moved a pair of 100 mph throwing prospects, Chase Petty and Brusdar Graterol, to acquire Gray and Maeda. They traded popular players, Nelson Cruz and Luis Arraez, to get Ryan and López. Homegrown players like North St. Paul’s Louie Varland may eventually fill holes in the rotation, but they built the current group through savvy trades.
Everyone remembers how the Twins got Correa. He wasn’t getting traction in the open market after the Houston Astros moved on from him, and he signed a creative one-year contract two years ago. Then, when the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants passed on him because of medical concerns in the offseason, the front office moved to keep him in Minnesota. Correa wasn’t at his best this year, but his defense was vital against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. And his postseason experience helped prepare his young teammates for the playoffs.
Cristian Guzman was Minnesota’s last great shortstop before Correa. He hit .266/.303/.382 and made the All-Star team in six seasons with the Twins (1999-2004), and they struggled to replace him after he signed with the Washington Nationals in 2004. Minnesota had defensive wizards like Pedro Florimon, but he couldn’t hit. Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, and Jorge Polanco played short before settling at other positions. Falvey and Levine drafted shortstop Royce Lewis first-overall with their first-ever pick, and he’s a transcendent superstar. But his future is likely at another position, given his two ACL injuries and Correa’s long-term contract.
In 2002, the Twins had Guzman at short and Rick Reed, Kyle Lohse, Eric Milton, Brad Radke, Joe Mays, and a young Johan Santana in the rotation. They had Guardado leading the bullpen and a productive lineup. But many Twins teams since then have had productive lineups and reliable bullpens. Correa and the rotation set this year’s team apart.
That’s not to take away from Lewis’ brilliance, Edouard Julien’s patient at-bats, and Matt Wallner’s majestic power. The team itself is special. It has a crew of local players (Varland, Wallner, and Thielbar) and international stars who have been part of the organization since 2009 (Max Kepler and Polanco). Every player has a role. Rocco Baldelli frequently empties the bench to win games.
The Twins are the sum of their parts and a quality whole. But they advanced in playoffs because they built a team with power hitting and pitching. Ultimately, they won their first playoff series since beating the Moneyball A’s because they have a good rotation and an All-Star shortstop. Minnesota built a team so good that breaking an 18-game postseason losing streak alone would have been a disappointment.
