As the adage goes, with great power comes great criticism. Or something along those lines. Joe Ryan has blossomed into a beautiful flower not only for the Minnesota Twins but for Major League Baseball. Now that he is among the league’s top 20 starting pitchers, even minor blips become major news. When success is the norm, five- and six-earned run games are immediately talking points. Such is the case for Ryan after he gave up five runs against the Houston Astros on May 30th and six runs against the Detroit Tigers on June 16th. In his last four starts, he’s pitched 23.2 innings with a 6.08 ERA. Is his recent slump cause for concern?
Thankfully, there’s no reason to believe Ryan’s shaky stretch won’t subside soon. The culprit is his secondary pitches. His trademark four-seamer has performed just as well as it always has. It even returned 15 (!) whiffs against Detroit. Twins catchers almost always give him a target up in the zone, where his elite spin and vertical approach angle love to live. The same cannot be said for his splitter and breaking balls. Much of the damage he’s allowed has come from one of those two pitches. (Technically three, considering he throws a distinct slider and sweeper).
Ryan’s pitch chart from that game shows his usual steady influx of high heat but with far too many splitters up and in the zone. Ryan’s approach with the splitter does not appear out of the ordinary. Christian Vázquez regularly gave Ryan a high target even when throwing the splitter, the exact same target he shows when Ryan throws his fastball. He traditionally gets excellent drop with his splitter, but he had smaller-than-normal drop with it against Detroit, leaving it hanging and, therefore, hittable too often. It’s not a massive difference, but the average splitter drop against Detroit was 33 inches compared to his season average of 37. It’s possible Ryan is missing his spots because of this, though it’s difficult to say.
Ryan’s June 10th start against the Toronto Blue Jays may have been the worst day for his secondaries. He was able to go six innings but allowed a mediocre three runs. Of the 26 splitters he threw, only five went for whiffs, and one got a called strike, good for a 19% CSW (a statistic created by Pitcherlist’s Nick Pollack used to assess a pitcher’s stuff in a game). His sweeper was actually worse. Of the 11 he threw, none of them returned whiffs or called strikes. Once again, his pitch chart shows a multitude of splitters and sweepers high, in the zone, or both. Notably, the splitter dropped 35 inches on average.
However it is happening, Ryan’s pitch mechanics are resulting in an unwanted excessive amount of spin. The closer the pitcher’s index and middle fingers are, the more spin the pitch will have. Naturally, the split-fingered fastball minimizes that spin, giving it the tumbling effect (Ryan throws a variant of the splitter, similar to Kevin Gausman’s). Ryan’s abbreviated issue could very likely be a slight grip problem. Of course, Ryan and his coaches will work on the true solution, but it’s encouraging to see Ryan locate the pitch somewhat well, just not always with the desired drop.
Regardless of how hittable the splitter is, the point is it did not perform well. Thrown just 18 times in Ryan’s 99 pitches, batters whiffed twice and got two hits on it, including this Javier Báez homer:
Getting back on track may require just a few small adjustments. Having his splitter dip beneath the zone more often will benefit him immensely. In the meantime, there are a couple of things he could try.
Ryan’s fastball is no secret anymore. It was the first pitch he threw to Detroit batters 22 times. He faced 28 batters. Continuing to throw it in 0-0 counts will work. After all, of those 22 first-pitch fastballs, seven of them returned whiffs – on the first pitch of an at-bat. Like I said earlier, it’s an elite pitch, and batters know he likes to throw them high. However, it may be worth mixing it up to initiate at-bats. Some baseball circles call 0-0 and 1-0 breaking balls “free real estate” pitches. Since batters are less likely to swing in those counts, especially if they don’t see a fastball, there’s a low-risk, high-reward incentive not to throw a fastball. With Ryan struggling to locate his splitter, it may be to his benefit to try and “get a feel” for it on gameday in those kinds of situations.
Simply not throwing the splitter as much could also be of interest. The Pitch Level Value (PLV) of his slider/sweeper is a remarkable 5.53 (0-10 scale, with 5 being average). Despite the wide range, 5.5 is actually elite (more on PLV here). Though the pitch struggled against Toronto, it has been a better pitch season-long than the splitter (his splitter PLV is 4.97). More sliders/sweepers down and in on lefties could work in place of his splitter, considering he has had a firmer grip on its command.
Joe Ryan has not suddenly lost control of his fastball. He’s not walking batters, failing to get whiffs, or throwing any less hard than he used to. There’s no real cause for concern. His recent struggles are the product of poor secondary command. Trust that he’ll figure things out soon.
