After a disappointing 2022 season, the Minnesota Twins tried to course-correct their mistakes from the year before. Depth became the theme of Minnesota’s offseason once Carlos Correa re-signed.
Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Nick Gordon were the super-utility players. President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey traded two minor leaguers to the Kansas City Royals for Michael A. Taylor, giving Minnesota a proper Plan B for Buxton in the outfield, a shrewd move. Adding Christian Vázquez to pair with Ryan Jeffers gave the Twins two-starting caliber catchers who guided the pitching staff and have proven to be important defensively.
Those were all necessary moves for the Twins. Adding proven veterans is a better bet than relying on multiple weeks of Gilberto Celestino, Mark Contreras, and Jermaine Palacios getting regular time in the starting lineup. On paper, it was good depth all around. But this winter, it looked like most of Minnesota’s depth would come from their left-handed hitting corner outfielders.
Max Kepler has been the full-time starting right fielder at Target Field since 2017. But Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner were waiting beneath him on the depth chart. The Twins brought in Joey Gallo on a one-year, $13 million bounce-back contract, adding further depth. With a glut of left-handed hitting corner outfielders, there was some speculation that Kepler could be on the move with an expiring contract and some sub-par seasons. No trade ever materialized.
Regardless of if he didn’t fetch a good return package or the Twins saw Kepler returning to form, they argued that it didn’t matter – a team can’t have too much depth. Paired with a trio of young prospects and a bounce-back season from Gallo, Kepler made Minnesota’s corner outfielders their deepest position group heading into the season. Even if everyone doesn’t pan out, someone should be able to contribute, right? Well, the five-man unit has only produced 1.8 fWAR.
Kepler has quickly turned from a fan-favorite into persona non grata. Although they didn’t trade him, there was some hope that a different approach and the shift limitations could turn things around. Instead, Kepler has hit .189/.261/.365 with seven home runs. There have been some good stretches for Kepler, and the defense is still good. But he continues to hover around a league-average player with a 72 OPS+ (100 is league average) while recording 0 fWAR. Kepler has yet to reward the front office for their faith in him this season.
The Gallo pickup had some fans excited. The hope was that getting out of the high-pressure New York and Los Angeles markets would allow him to return to the form that made him a feared slugger early in his career. Gallo’s .192 batting average is his career average, but he has racked up a 115 OPS+ with 11 home runs. That seems good until you take the last month-plus into consideration. Since May 1, Gallo has had a .627 OPS with a 36.8 percent strikeout rate and four home runs. Outside of a good first month, Gallo has been a left-handed Miguel Sanó with better defense.
Kirilloff started the season on the injured list while recovering from offseason wrist surgery. Since returning, he has been one of Minnesota’s most reliable hitters. Kirilloff racked up a .268/.384/.423 slash line with a 126 OPS+ and four home runs in 39 games. The power hasn’t returned, but his 13 percent walk rate is on pace to be a career high. Things have slowed down since June 1, with just a .628 OPS and an 8.5 percent walk rate. Kirilloff has still been productive and is the lone bright spot in this unit.
Like Kirilloff, Larnach was a former top prospect with upside but also injury concerns. Larnach has been able to stay relatively healthy and had a great start to the season. However, since May 1, he has hit .158/.234/.386 with three home runs and a 62 wRC+ (100 is league average). Strikeouts have been the key issue. He has a 34.5 percent strikeout rate this year and when the ball does go in play it’s typically a playable fly ball.
Wallner is the only guy on the list who hasn’t been struggling. He has an impressive 1.099 OPS with the Twins this year because he’s only played in 11 games with the club. His last major league appearance was May 28, and they sent him down after recording seven hits in five games to make room for Kepler. The rest of the time, Wallner has been smashing Triple-A pitching with a .961 OPS, a .438 BABIP, eight home runs, and 34 RBI in 49 games. All of the depth the Twins built in the off-season prevented Wallner from playing in Minneapolis, especially since it appears Larnach was the first call-up before him.
Depth is important. The Twins learned that lesson the hard way last year. Most teams need to tap into their depth throughout a 162-game season. Instead, they got the worst of both worlds with a crowded room and nobody producing. A philosophical change in approach could help, but many of these corner outfielders profile a little too similar – outside of Kepler. The solution might seem too simple. Outside of a philosophy change at the plate, the team just needs to make room for someone.
Who knows if Wallner, Kirilloff, or Larnach can be core pieces of the Twins roster? But does cooking in Triple-A benefit three players who are 26 or older? Especially when they’d replace Gallo and Kepler, who probably will not be on the team next season and certainly are not helping them win games this season. The sunken cost of squeezing out value from Gallo and Kepler can’t outweigh the need to find out if the young guys have any value.
Moving Kepler off the team clears more at-bats for everyone else, and giving Gallo more time to get it together allows them to have plenty of depth for the season. Still, the trio of young hitters needs to produce more at the plate. It’s not like Larnach and Kirilloff haven’t had chances to hit. Wallner has legitimate power, but he’s still relatively raw, with only 29 games in the majors.
The Major League Baseball season is long, and things can change in a hurry. Minnesota’s left-handed hitting corner outfield depth has not been a blessing. It’s not really a curse, either, but a mess of their own making. Things likely aren’t going to get better until the Twins figure out their best roster, either by performance or someone in management making a change.
