The Minnesota Twins entered the 2023 season with one of baseball’s most talented young relievers. Jhoan Duran switched from the rotation to the bullpen to start the 2022 season and produced Pitching Ninja highlights in nearly every appearance. With a 100-plus MPH fastball and secondary pitches with velocity and movement, Duran was borderline unhittable in his rookie campaign.
He finished with a 1.86 ERA, a 33.5 strikeout percentage, and a 0.98 WHIP in 67.2 innings (57 appearances) last season. It wasn’t just the baseline stats, either. Duran earned 1.5 fWAR, a 3.21 FIP, and a 4.56 win probability added mark in 2022.
It was such a dominant season that the Twins moved him from late-inning firefighter last season to the primary closer role in 2023. In that role, he totaled a 2.10 ERA while converting 12 of 15 saves in over 31 appearances through the first half of the season. But after the All-Star break, Duran amassed a 5.23 ERA over his next 11 appearances.
If Duran had completely fallen apart, it would have immediately tanked Minnesota’s bullpen. Even though Emilio Pagán and Caleb Thielbar have had nice seasons, Duran’s raw stuff has held the bullpen together through the season. He kept things on the right track during Pagán’s first-half struggles, Griffin Jax’s inconsistency, and Thielbar’s absence due to injury. The Twins also didn’t trade for bullpen help at the deadline other than flipping Jorge López for Dylan Floro, highlighting that Duran was going to be the guy in Minnesota’s high-leverage situations. But after Duran’s nearly month-long lull, it seems that he has found his groove again.
Duran has snapped back into shape since Aug. 13. He’s spun a 1.32 ERA in 13 appearances while going 6 of 7 in save attempts. The underlying numbers have come back to Duran’s average as well, with a 2.38 FIP, a 32.1 percent strikeout rate, and a 0.27 WPA during that span. The Twins have their top reliever back to his top form at the right time, with the playoffs just weeks away.
Velocity wasn’t the root cause of Duran’s issues. His 101.8 MPH average velocity on his fastball remained unchanged from his season average. Duran’s 23.9 K/BB percentage actually increased to 26.5 percent during this range. The biggest issue with his over-usage is that it allows hitters to see his stuff. Just like batters gain an advantage over starters the more times they see him, the more a hitter can see of a reliever in a short period of time, the better.
It shows in his underlying stats. Duran’s 89.5 MPH exit velocity ticked up to 92.1 MPH off the bat. He owns a 7.4 percent opposing barrel rate (hitting the ball with good exit velocity and launch angle) for the season. But during that late July-early August stretch, it went up to a 10.7 percent clip. As a result, Duran started giving up more home runs. While he’s only allowed six all season, two of his home runs allowed came during his worst period of the season.
So what’s the root cause of Duran’s slide? The Twins overused him. During his rough post-ASG stretch, they deployed Duran 10 times in a 20-day stretch. They also used him for three days in a row over the 20-day span. That might not seem like much. But even with someone who has an average fastball velocity of 101.8 MPH, the Twins don’t want to allow opposing hitters to time Duran up by overusing him.
More rest has been a big reason why Duran has found his groove again. Pagán’s strong second half and Thielbar’s return have allowed Duran to rest. But what about in the postseason? Ultimately, the point of having a lockdown closer is to use them in the highest-leverage points of a season. Therefore, the Twins will lean on Duran heavily in the postseason. But can he hold up?
In the 2016 playoffs, the Chicago Cubs used Aroldis Chapman for 15.2 innings in 10 of 17 postseason games. Chapman was the best reliever in baseball at the time, with the same flamethrowing ability Duran has, except as a lefty. The Cubs used him as a workhorse in late innings because he was all that the team really had. It worked for Joe Maddon, Rocco Baldelli’s former manager in Tampa because the north-siders won their first World Series in a century. However, Chapman wore down noticeably towards the end.
Chapman only allowed three baserunners in his first three World Series appearances while allowing no runs and striking out eight batters through five total innings. Each of those appearances had one day between off days. Then in his final two appearances, where he pitched on back-to-back days, Chapman gave up three runs on four hits and only three strikeouts in 2.2 innings. One hit included a Rajai Davis home run in the 8th inning of Game 7 that nearly put away the series for Cleveland.
The point is that the Twins are likely going to lean on Duran more than they did in the regular season. Duran will likely make an appearance this postseason against a team that just saw his stuff the day before. It’s not just a Duran phenomenon. It’s something that every team with an important reliever will have to deal with.
However, when the playoffs begin, caution in those situations goes to the wind. Every game becomes a must-win and every situation could make or break the Twins season. Whether Duran is as effective or not, he still is Minnesota’s best chance to lock down games in the late innings.
Jhoan Duran has re-established himself as Minnesota’s most important reliever. With the playoffs around the corner, the Twins have their elite arm ready to go for the high-leverage late innings of a postseason game. Putting Duran on the mound to throw his high cheese fastballs and with his wicked curveballs and splinkers gives the Twins their best opportunity to win their first playoff game in nearly 20 years. Fortunately, he has found his groove again.
