The Minnesota Twins are entering a period of simultaneous clarity and uncertainty. Over the weekend, the Twins learned that they’d be playing the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card. They will once again have an opportunity to end their playoff win drought with a team that just feels different than the past.
But that’s not to say there’s no concern about this team. Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa are all battling back from injury. Still, Minnesota’s lineup truly ascended in the second half with help from rookies and youth. Rotation pieces Pablo López and Sonny Gray have cemented themselves as AL Cy Young finalists. Bailey Ober has developed into a dependable starter with his flat approach angle fastball. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan’s skills remain some of the more tantalizing in the league. The bullpen has performed admirably overall, finishing the regular season 6th in team WHIP and 15th in team ERA, but they represent a slight weakness. They’ve blown 28 saves during the season, with a save percentage of just 58%.
Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have also put together quality seasons. However, they’ve each had their fair share of blow-up outings in what was an excellent second half of the season. Duran’s near implosion against the Los Angeles Angels on Sept. 22, when he loaded the bases and gave up one run, ended with the Twins clinching the AL Central. Nevertheless, that situation cannot occur against the Blue Jays.
Jax finishes the regular season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. But he also had some troublesome outings late in the season. Since August 16, Jax has had three losses, a blown save, and a 6.48 ERA.
Duran and Jax aren’t the only relievers who have been shaky, though. The Twins traded for Dylan Floro and released him. Jovani Moran’s command woes continued until his unfortunate injury. And Jordan Balazovic had a 6.28 ERA after the All-Star break.
It’s easy to focus on the bullpen struggles and hitters’ injuries, but there’s reason to believe the Twins can fix them. The starters can help to alleviate those woes, even if they may not necessarily take on more innings than what’s become typical in the postseason. Most playoff teams will shorten their starter’s innings to combat nearly universal poorer performance in the third time through the order, and manager Rocco Baldelli may follow suit.
Baldelli has had his starters pitch the third-most innings in the league this season. That doesn’t change the fact some of those starters have noticeable time through order splits. For example, Gray dominates batters in their first appearance (1.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), but they regress by their third appearance (4.85 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). López also has a slight increase in runs allowed (3.00 ERA up to 4.22 ERA) as the game progresses.
However, the rotation may “prop up” the bullpen in a different way. With so many talented arms, the overflow from the rotation into the bullpen is the way they can best bolster the relief corps. Every playoff team shortens their rotation, but Minnesota’s group is different.
Kenta Maeda was a terrific reliever with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2016 to 2019. He’s been able to regain some of his ability from 2020 by relying less on his fastball en route to a 3.36 ERA since he came off the IL in June. His splitter has been elite, coaxes chases 44.1% of the time. He’s a capable starter with five pitches, but Maeda provides a lot of value to the bullpen. Louie Varland already has promising stuff, but he can supercharge it now that he’s working out of the bullpen. He reportedly touched 100 mph on his fastball, averaging 97 mph, and only allowed two runs (earned and inherited) in 12 innings as a reliever. He’s a prime candidate for the bullpen where he can let his excellent four-seamer/cutter/slider combo shine.
Former starter Chris Paddack has also returned from Tommy John surgery. Like Varland, his velocity has increased, up from 93.0 in 2022 as a starter to 95.5 as a reliever. With what should be a better fastball, Paddack profiles as a stout relief option with his weak-contact-inducing changeup rounding out his 1-2 punch. Earlier in his career, it became apparent he’d need another plus pitch if he was to succeed as a starter. In this case, Paddack will be able to let loose with the two pitches he rode to such great success as a rookie (3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP).
Even in the bullpen itself, there’s clarity. Brock Stewart recently returned from his elbow injury. Stewart’s absurd fastball may not continue to return a 50% or higher whiff rate as it has so far, but his 0.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are most welcome.
Just over a month ago, the Twins didn’t have an established lefty reliever outside of Caleb Thielbar. Dallas Keuchel could’ve fit that position, but not even his largely in-tact seam-shifted wake sinker seemed sufficient enough to comfortably insert him into a playoff game. Fortunately, Kody Funderburk looks ready to take on that role. After debuting on August 28th, he’s achieved a spectacular 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP.
Combining the return of Stewart, Funderburk’s hot start, and the rolling over of depth from the rotation, Minnesota’s bullpen looks strong. It’s not that Duran, Jax, and the rest of the bullpen wouldn’t already be sufficient, but there’s now more confidence in place of uncertainty.
