Lost in the news cycle of whether Aaron Rodgers will come back, retire, or be traded is this: Will he be any good? The Rodgers who plays in 2023 likely won’t be any better at winning a big game than the Rodgers of 2022, 2021, or 2020. Age curves and poor clutch play under Matt LeFleur suggest he can no longer deliver elite, or even better than average, quarterback play when it matters most.
In recent years, he’s been downright bad in crunch time. In the past four win-or-go-home games, Rodgers has thrown six touchdowns to four interceptions. And this isn’t including the other Kirby Joseph interception that was nullified by a highly questionable penalty. Six touchdowns to five interceptions in do-or-die games. Two on the last drive of games.
He’s also taken 15 sacks in those four games. Not all of them are his fault, but Rodgers clearly doesn’t have the escapability he once had, and holds onto the ball too long waiting for the big play. This has been a knock against him for some time, but it becomes magnified in the playoffs. Teams gameplan defensively for this.
In the most important moments of these games, the final drives, Rodgers threw two game-sealing INTs (2019 and 2022), a failed fourth down chuck to Davante Adams (2021 vs. the San Francisco 49ers), and went 0-3 at the goal line before settling for a field goal (2020 vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers). These are Brett Favrian conclusions to games.
In his MVP seasons, he had a regular season’s body of work to fall back on, but in 2022, Rodgers was at his worst all year.
Rodgers played poorly all season, not just against the Lions
This much is well documented: Rodgers had one of the worst seasons of his career by nearly every statistical measure. Worst touchdown to interception ratio. Fewest passing yards. Worst QB rating. He didn’t have a game in which he eclipsed 300 yards passing.
Rodgers played poorly against the division with passer ratings of 79.2 against the Minnesota Vikings and 64.9 against the Detroit Lions. However, he had a 106.0 rating against the Chicago Bears, and one could argue that should actually be higher.
He was especially bad at crunch time, posting his worst overall QB rating in the fourth quarter of games last season at 79.3.
In the most important game of the season, at home, he tossed a pedestrian 205 yards on 17 completions against a Lions team that had nothing to play for. He was sacked five times and went 1/4 for eight yards on the last drive of the game with an INT.
Yes, he had an injured thumb. But he’ll only be more prone to injury the longer he plays.
Rodgers is at an age when QBs fall off a cliff
Quarterbacks are playing longer than they ever have due to rules protecting the passer and advances in nutrition, training, and recovery. But all the avocado ice cream in the world can’t escape Father Time. The age curve is steep, and the drop-off happens fast. Aside from Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Warren Moon, QBs have not played well in their age 40 seasons. Paul Noon of Acme Packing Company covered this in depth. History is not on Rodgers’ side.
But forget for a moment about QBs playing well in their 40s, it’s exceedingly rare for quarterbacks to play at all. Peyton Manning (39), Phillip Rivers (39), Ben Roethlisberger (39), Carson Palmer (38), Eli Manning (38), and Tony Romo (36), all hung it up before their age-40 season.
Of those who stuck around, Tom Brady (43), Drew Brees (41), and Brett Favre (40) are the only quarterbacks to start and win a playoff game. It’s not impossible, but it’s about as rare as finding a four-leaf clover.
Rodgers has looked old these past few years. And despite playing at home for three of the past four elimination games, he has been less than heroic when the moments were biggest.
Clutch in the playoffs has never been his calling card
Across 21 career playoff games, Rodgers only has one fourth-quarter comeback in his career. Compared to 21 game-winning drives in the regular season. What has he shown in the past four years that suggests he can reverse this trend?
His contract was always structured to be year by year, and there’s just not a solid football case for wanting him back. He’s had a Hall of Fame career, and none of the above is meant to take anything away from that. We’ve likely seen the best of Aaron Rodgers, and the question now is: How far will he fall? That’s a question no Packers fan wants to answer.
