So much of the discussion around Aaron Rodgers has been speculation based. Rumors and hot takes have run wild as talking heads try to keep the attention of fans.
For those of us who don’t care for the dramatics and are interested in learning real information about the whens, hows, and whys look no further than Joel Corry at CBS Sports. Corry, a former NFL agent and salary cap expert breaks down some of the league’s most pressing issues with incredible perspective. He is fantastic. It’s a lot like Kurt Warner’s breakdowns of quarterback play. It’s not some “entertainer” screaming, it’s just a true expert in his field giving you real information.
Corry recently weighed in on the potential Rodgers trade situation and for Packers fans looking for a deep dive on what to expect his perspective is great. He began by laying out, in great detail, the exact numbers of the contract situation.
“Rodgers became the NFL’s first $50 million per year player last March…The contract is widely considered to be $150.815 million over three years, although there are two additional below-market years (2025 and 2026) in the deal.
The Packers used one of the NFL’s more complex contract structures with Rodgers. The deal has the seldom used double option bonus structure.
Initially, Rodgers’ 2023 base salary is a fully guaranteed $59.465 million. A $58.3 million payment is required to exercise an option for Rodgers’ 2025 contract year worth $20.9 million to drop his 2023 base salary to a fully guaranteed $1.165 million. Rodgers is scheduled to make $59.515 million in 2023. The window to exercise this option is the first day of the 2023 league year (March 15) until a day before Green Bay’s first 2023 regular season game in September.
From a salary cap standpoint, the presumption is option years will be picked up. Option bonuses are prorated over the life of a contract (up to a maximum of five years), including the option years, beginning in the league year when the option is exercised. This means the $58.3 million option bonus is prorated on the salary cap at $14.575 million annually from 2023 through 2026.
Rodgers is counting on Green Bay’s 2023 salary cap at $31,623,570. His cap number consists of $8.16 million in proration from his fully guaranteed $40.8 million 2022 roster bonus, $14.575 million in option bonus proration, the reduced $1.165 million base salary, a $50,000 workout bonus and $7,673,570 of pre-existing bonus proration from previous Packers contracts.
The contract’s second option is in 2024. Rodgers has a $49.25 million 2024 base salary that was guaranteed for injury at signing. This $49.25 million becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of 2024 waiver period (five days after Super Bowl LVIII) on next Feb. 16. A $47 million payment is required to exercise an option for Rodgers’ 2026 contract year worth $15.05 million to drop his 2024 base salary to a fully guaranteed $2.25 million. The window to exercise this option is the first day of the 2024 league year until a day before Green Bay’s first 2024 regular season game.
The $47 million is currently being prorated on the cap at $15,666,666, $15,666,666 and $15,666,668 for 2024, 2025 and 2026 because of the presumption that options will be exercised. Rodgers’ 2024, 2025 and 2026 cap numbers are listed as $40,701,666, $59,301,666 and $53,451,668.”
Then things got interesting as Corry walked through the precedent for other older superstar quarterbacks and their trade compensation. People keep comparing Rodgers to the Tom Brady situation, but Brady was a free agent. So what does history tell us about Rodgers’ situation?
“Only a handful of starting quarterbacks who were at least 35 years old have been traded since the current NFL system of free agency was implemented in 1993.
The most obvious comparison is to Brett Favre, who preceded Rodgers as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. The Packers dealt Favre, who was 38, to the Jets for a conditional 2009 fourth round pick in August 2008 after he changed his mind on retiring. The Packers ended up with a 2009 third round pick because Favre’s offensive playtime during the 2008 season hit the 50% mark; 70% or more playtime with the Jets making the playoffs would have garnered a second round pick instead. The maximum return for Green Bay would have been a first round pick with Favre’s playtime reaching 80% and the Jets making the Super Bowl.
A poison pill was also included. If Favre was subsequently traded to the Vikings (an NFC North rival), the Jets would have been required to give the Packers three first round picks. Favre only played one season with the Jets. After he retired again following the 2008 season, the Jets relinquished rights to him by releasing him. This paved the way for Favre to have another change of heart and play his final two NFL seasons with the Vikings.
The most accomplished older quarterback to be traded is Joe Montana. The 49ers dealt Montana, who was 36, safety David Whitmore and a 1994 third round pick to the Chiefs for a 1993 first round pick (18th overall) in April 1993. Montana spent 1992 backing up Steve Young after missing the entire 1991 season because of an elbow injury.
The 49ers’ initially asked for first, second and third round picks in the trade. Montana retired after two seasons with the Chiefs.
Warren Moon, at age 37, was traded from the Oilers (now Titans) to the Vikings in April 1994 for a 1994 fourth round pick and a 1995 third round pick. The Hall of Famer played three seasons for the Vikings.
The latest older quarterback data point is Matt Ryan. The Colts acquired a soon-to-be 37 year old Ryan from the Falcons last March for a 2022 third round pick. Ryan decided a fresh start was best after 14 years in Atlanta because the Falcons tried to replace him in a failed pursuit of Deshaun Watson. The Colts are expected to release Ryan before the 2023 league year starts on March 15 because of his poor play last season.”
That leads us to what Corry believes Rodgers’ value might actually be for the Packers.
“The 39-year-old Rodgers making his career a year-to-year proposition and his contract complicate a trade. These two factors and Rodgers’ age will impact the trade compensation.
According to NBC Sports’ Peter King, the Packers will seek two first round picks for Rodgers in the event of a trade. The Packers probably needed to deal Rodgers last year when he coming off back-to-back NFL MVP awards to expect that type of return or more.
Nonetheless, Rodgers’ trade value should be more than the other older quarterbacks. Rodgers is probably better than some of his 2022 statistics suggests, but not quite the player from his most recent MVP seasons.
The low end of Rodgers’ trade value should be a 2023 second round pick, assuming he is dealt in a timely fashion. The high end would be a 2023 first round pick with a conditional 2024 second round pick that could become a first round pick depending on either Rodgers or the team’s 2023 performance and whether he commits to play in 2024.
A team should want some assurances from Rodgers about playing at least two seasons before giving up significant assets to obtain him. Otherwise, he’s just a very expensive one year rental for $59.515 million.
As a general manager, I would feel comfortable giving up a 2023 second round pick and a conditional 2024 second round pick for Rodgers. The 2024 pick could become a first round pick with Rodgers taking at least 80% of offensive snaps during the regular season and the team winning a wild card playoff game or advancing to the divisional playoff round. I would want a conditional 2025 second round pick in return from the Packers that voids if Rodgers plays a second season for the team in 2024.”
I’m his full piece, which you can read here, Corry also discussed potential timing and the ramifications for the team that acquires Rodgers. It is absolutely worth your full time to go and check out.
Most Packers fans have remained even keel through the situation. Perhaps that’s what happens when you’ve already lived through a Brett Favre situation? But it’s still difficult waiting without insight. Hopefully, Corry’s words provide some actual information as opposed to the other things that are floating around right now.
