During the owners meeting, Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said it was important to temper expectations regarding quarterback Jordan Love, who will enter the 2023 season as a starter for the first time in his NFL career. But it’s time to go one step beyond that. It’s imperative to temper expectations with the entire team.
This year, the Packers aren’t truly expecting to compete for a championship, even though a full rebuild will never happen under the Ron Wolf tree. Be it a rebuild, retool, or reload, the Packers expect to use the 2023 season to evaluate everything around the team. Green Bay is 32nd in guaranteed money spent in free agency this offseason, which is a strong indicator that they crossed the all-in line and are ready to enter a new phase of the roster. Their financial situation is just one more indicator that nearly every phase of the game is up or re-evaluation in 2023.
Money
Green Bay went outside of their usual modus operandi in the final years of Aaron Rodgers, and understandably so. Void years and restructures became common words in Packers fans’ vocabularies after decades of financial stability. Now Green Bay will try and clean up the mess.
The Packers needed several restructures. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been able to stay under the cap. But they got a pay cut from Aaron Jones, didn’t add void years to David Bakhtiari’s contract, and haven’t added any significant pieces in free agency. They only re-signed special teamers. Moreover, the Rodgers trade will cost them $9 million in cap space this year. However, it will open up more than $40 million in 2024 if the deal is executed before June 1, which is still the expectation.
All those factors indicate a more precautionary approach. That’s different than in the last three off-seasons. The Packers have never been big free-agency spenders, outside of 2019. But in years prior, they’ve made greater efforts to keep their own players.
Quarterback
The biggest X-factor of the 2023 season is Jordan Love at quarterback. The 24-year-old quarterback has shown signs of development, but now he will carry an offense that isn’t exactly loaded with skill-position talent. Love is already in the last year of his rookie deal, but the expectation is the Packers will execute his fifth-year option for 2024.
Still, this season is Love’s biggest chance to show he can be the future of the franchise. If he isn’t convincing, the Packers might look for alternatives in a 2024 draft class considered rich at the most important position in football. Green Bay also will probably have extra draft capital from the Rodgers trade. If Love is good right away, though, the Packers can work an extension as soon as they did with Rodgers, who signed during his first year as a starter in 2008.
Offensive line
The Packers have a good starting offensive line with strong depth because that’s the area of the roster general manager Brian Gutekunst values the most (besides the quarterback). But this is still an evaluation year, especially for Bakhtiari. As I explained last week, his deal without void years creates a make-or-break year for him in Green Bay. Either the Packers are comfortable giving him a new long-term extension, or they will trade or release him in a year. If the Packers start the season slow, it’s not impossible to think that they even move him in a mid-season trade before the deadline.
The season will also give the staff an opportunity to see more from the young players. Yosh Nijman will play under the restricted free-agent tender. His level of performance will determine if the Packers will want to give him a long-term deal and for how much money. Zach Tom will enter his second year as a pro, and if he develops well after a strong rookie season, he may establish himself as a full-time starting tackle and weigh into the equation.
There are also other developmental players on the bench. Sean Rhyan was a third-round pick last year, and his slow start was to be expected after transitioning from college tackle to NFL guard. He still has a chance to succeed. Seventh-rounder Rasheed Walker and undrafted Caleb Jones are also talented tackles who are chasing a role. Even center Josh Myers needs to be more consistent, or Tom may play inside with Bakhtiari and Nijman at the tackle spots.
Offensive pieces
The Packers expect Christian Watson to be the primary wide receiver after a promising rookie season. After a rough start to his career, filled with drops and injuries, then a stellar finish to his first NFL year, Watson has a chance to step up and justify the investment Green Bay made in him.
Last year’s fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs had the inverse experience to start his career. His first games were solid, but an ankle injury limited what he could do later. He missed some games and wasn’t fully healthy for the remainder of the year. After recovering, Doubs will have a chance to show if he can be a No. 2 or if he’s not more than a depth piece at wide receiver.
The Packers also have two players drafted in the seventh round last year. They took Samori Toure out of Nebraska and signed Bo Melton, who the Seattle Seahawks drafted. The tight end room is almost empty, and Josiah Deguara is the only who has shown enough in the offense to be projected as an offensive piece. Tyler Davis is more of a project and special teamer.
Brian Gutekunst will almost certainly add skill pieces to the offense during the draft.
Defensive coaching staff
The defense has plenty of talent, and even though they lost some depth in the defensive line in Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry, and haven’t re-signed safety Adrian Amos, most of the unit will be back in 2023. But it’s impossible to hide that the defense underperformed last year. There are good players everywhere, and some have the talent to be elite ones — such as Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, and Kenny Clark.
Most of the questions are centered around defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who hasn’t been able to maximize the talent at his disposal in the last two years. In terms of general results, there is no uncertainty: The defense under Barry has been worse than it was under Mike Pettine. So 2023 will be a decisive year for the defensive coaching staff. If they are not good once again, it will be impossible for head coach Matt LaFleur to justify keeping his coaches, even though LaFleur chose Barry to run the unit.
The Green Bay Packers are in a different stage of their roster-building process now than they were one or two years ago. And the fans should understand this reality if they don’t want to be disappointed.
