Aaron Jones has been one of the more effective running backs in the entire NFL over the last couple of years. In 2022, he had his career high in rushing yards (1,121), and he’s probably the best offensive skill-position player on the Green Bay Packers’ roster. However, there is one area of his game that has generated some level of concern: He fumbled a lot last year.
Fumbles are natural for a running back with high volume. Since Jones started to have a full-time big role for the Packers in 2019, he has had at least two fumbles per season. Last year’s numbers, though, are more concerning. Jones fumbled five times and lost three of them.
With 213 rushing attempts, Jones was tied for second in fumbles among running backs, only behind Derrick Henry, who had six total fumbles in 349 attempts. That was the worst number of fumbles for a Packers running back since James Starks in 2015. By the way, that was a tough year for Green Bay’s rushing game because Eddie Lacy also fumbled four times.
For comparison, fellow running back AJ Dillon has had three career regular-season fumbles in 419 attempts over three years. Jones is the sixth running back with more fumbles in the NFL since 2019.
The Packers starter has also had some poorly timed fumbles. The biggest example is the one in the 2020 NFC Championship game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to start the second half. He fumbled twice in that game, but Green Bay recovered the other one.
Last season, one of his fumbles occurred in the elimination game against the Detroit Lions in Week 18. The Packers were leading the game 9-3 with around 1:20 in the second quarter, with the ball at the 32-yard line in Lions territory. Jones caught a bubble screen and achieved a first down, but he fumbled the ball. That proved a costly mistake, as the Lions scored a field goal before the half — at least a six-point swing in a game the Lions won 20-16.
“It’s tough, but I’ll be better next year,” Jones said after the game at Lambeau Field. “Better ball security. All around, not just ball security, my game as a whole will be better next year.”
The Packers hope Jones’ fumbles last year were an outlier and not a sign of decline.
But mounting turnovers were a concern for the last Green Bay’s running backs who fumbled so many times in one season, and the pattern of fumbling ultimately led to a decline in their overall efficiency.
Ahman Green fumbled seven times in each of the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Then, in 2005, he played only five games, with the worst yards-per-carry average of his career. He still had an okay season in 2006 before the Packers let him go in free agency. For Starks, the sequencing was similar. He had had at least 3.5 yards per carry in each of his seasons with the Packers from 2010 to 2015. The last one was the third-best in terms of efficiency, but the fumbles piled up. Then he fell off a cliff in 2016, with only 2.3 yards per carry, and never played another NFL down after that.
Lacy is another recent example. He fumbled four times in 2015. He was still relatively efficient in 2016, with 5.1 yards per carry, but only played in five games. His efficiency numbers went down abruptly with the Seattle Seahawks in 2016, and he retired.
Another point of concern for the Packers is that most running backs of the 2017 class have already shown signs of decline. Jones and Christian McCaffrey, who have had fewer carries, are the notable exceptions.
Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Kareem Hunt were all let go from their former teams and are still available on the market. Joe Mixon might not make the Cincinnati Bengals’ roster either. And Alvin Kamara has been extremely inefficient in the last two seasons after four elite seasons for the New Orleans Saints.
Aaron Jones is under contract with the Packers through 2024. Green Bay hopes it can still benefit from a couple more years of production from their All-Pro running back. For the Packers, it will be imperative to conclude if the fumbles in 2022 were just a matter of bad luck in a season full of bad luck in general for the team.
