As the 2023 NFL Draft draws closer, there’s no shortage of nit picking and rumor spreading around the league. One of the prevailing sentiments as we approach the midway point of April is that this year’s wide receiver class might not feature quite as many first-round talents as perhaps anticipated. And the likelihood of TCU wideout Quentin Johnston being selected by the Green Bay Packers in the first round seems to be plummeting as well.
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has a pretty established track record of selecting freak athletes with his first-round picks, including Quay Walker and Eric Stokes over the past two seasons. With more of those types conceivably available since Green Bay will be drafting higher than they’re typically accustomed to, Gutekunst will have the ability to be pickier with his criteria for the No. 15 pick.
Johnston had a brilliant 2022 season at TCU, helping to lead the Horned Frogs to the National Championship game. But his times in the 40-yard dash, three-cone drill, and short shuttle don’t necessarily jive with what Gutekunst would be looking for in a first-round pick, especially one as high as the Packers have this season. Johnston’s times add up to an RAS score of 8.80, which would slot him in at the approximately 14th-highest score amongst wideouts in the 2023 draft. It’s not the only metric that Gutekunst uses — if he even uses it at all, although we’re all pretty sure he uses something at least similar. However, it’s a far cry from the likes of Christian Watson (9.96 RAS), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (9.26), or even Equanimeous St. Brown (9.85).
The other contributing factor is that the wide receiver class in this year’s draft might not be all that top heavy as a whole. It’s a pretty wide-held consensus that Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) will hear his name called in the first round. After that, it’s hard to be certain that another wideout will get selected on the first night of the draft. There are players who certainly could hear there names called, depending on how the dominoes fall. Johnston, Jordan Addison (USC), Zay Flowers (Boston College), or Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee) are all players that a GM could fall in love with. However, those players would more than likely be taken much later in the first, perhaps by a team that trades back a bit.
Don’t get me wrong, Johnston is an excellent player who could have a prosperous NFL career. But it doesn’t feel like the stars are aligning for him to end up heading to the Packers at pick No. 15. The draft capital that Green Bay currently has is subject to change over the next few weeks, depending on what the return for Aaron Rodgers is. However, it seems like there’s more Gutekunst-esque players that will be there with the team’s first selection. The Packers could go in just about any direction with their first selection, ranging from a future replacement for David Bakhtiari, pass rush help to bridge the gap until Rashan Gary returns, or — probably the most commonly mocked — a dynamic tight end to become an immediate safety valve for Jordan Love.
The final factor playing into the likelihood that Johnston won’t be packing his bags for Lambeau is the number of quarterbacks who get picked before the Packers are on the clock. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson are set to occupy four of the 14 picks before Green Bay steps up to the plate. That leaves just 10 players in the non-quarterback division that will be selected before Gutekunst puts pen to paper on the slip to hand to Roger Goodell. There will be just too many good players that fit Green Bay’s mold who will still be on the board for Quentin Johnson to end up in Green Bay.
