Last Sunday, the Green Bay Packers had an opportunity to seize control of a muddy NFC Wild Card race full of unremarkable teams. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming into Lambeau, they were favorites for a second-straight week. According to ESPN Analytics, a win would have sent their playoff odds soaring to 71%.
Instead, fresh off a resurgence that included back-to-back wins against the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay is back in the gutter. Baker Mayfield threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns against a helpless Packers defense, and Joe Barry crowned a second-straight NFC Player of the Week. And it’s not like they played Patrick Mahomes or anything last week; instead, it was meme quarterback Tommy DeVito. With the loss, Green Bay’s playoff odds now sit at 29%. But the Packers still essentially control their destiny, with a 95% chance of making the postseason if they win their final three games.
Sunday’s defensive performance felt like an inflection point. They could not get off the field and refused to give Jordan Love a chance to lead a comeback. The issues they faced — a lack of physicality, too much cushion in two-minute and third-and-long situations, and an inability to stop the run — have been commonplace not only with Barry at the helm but for the entire LaFleur-Gutekunst tenure.
Another overarching theme is the monster investment of 12 first-round defenders in the last 12 drafts. Looking at the depth chart and personnel, there’s no reason the Packers shouldn’t be able to put together a top-10 defense. That has led to near-annual preseason hype just for the unit to underperform again.
Matt LaFleur has given Barry what has sometimes felt like an obnoxiously long leash. With Barry’s postseason firing feeling all but certain, Green Bay’s leadership must be thorough and deliberate to ensure meaningful changes this offseason. Their new hire, their draft class, and all corresponding moves must work to form a new identity around stars Rashan Gary, Jaire Alexander, and Kenny Clark.
In fairness to the coaching staff, it’s hard to mention cyclical storylines with this defense without acknowledging the disproportionate number of injuries they’ve dealt with. Alexander and Eric Stokes‘ serious, lingering injuries have forced late-round rookies into action on the outside, and Darnell Savage’s various ailments have challenged an already thin safety room.
Ultimately, it has been a frustrating few seasons for Packers fans when the defense is on the field. Former Packers quarterback Kurt Benkert, who is vocal about the team on social media, characterized Barry as a “good, detail-oriented coach.” However, he stressed the “results-based” nature of the NFL business. New leadership and identity are necessary to ensure that Love’s career is not squandered like much of Rodgers’ was. LaFleur and Brian Gutekunst have a crucial role in getting there. LaFleur will likely get a second crack at hiring the new defensive coordinator.
The dream candidates are pretty obvious: legendary New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh are certainly among them. Despite being unlikely to return to New England, Belichick’s appetite for a coordinator job is unknown. The sky has been falling equally hard in New York, but Saleh and the rest of the Jets leadership could be safe for another year because of Rodgers’ injury. Therefore, it’s unlikely that they will land either of them.
On Gutekunst’s side, he must target physical, downhill players to help establish a smash-mouth identity. It’s how teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens have built perennially elite defenses. Rather than cyclically firing coordinators, these teams routinely feed them into head coaching jobs league-wide. When you watch the Packers, Quay Walker is one of the only guys seeking contact and playing downhill. Plenty of upgrades are left to be made to his game, but he has the traits Green Bay desperately needs. With Alexander and Stokes hopefully healthy to start 2024, a more man-heavy scheme would play to their strengths much more. That’s especially true if Gutekunst gets an instant-impact safety, which should be at the very top of his to-do list.
From Day 1, fans and media had trouble with the Packers hiring Joe Barry. Unfortunately, they were right. Green Bay’s front office has run things notoriously well, and it is methodical and disciplined when it comes to developing homegrown players, particularly quarterbacks. But they have been alarmingly imperturbable despite it being the same story every day on the defensive side of the ball.
Barry has lost a Toilet Bowl coordinator battle against Matt Canada this season. He has also handed Tommy DeVito a game-winning drive on national television, and he’s allowed Baker Mayfield to put up a stat line he hasn’t sniffed since his Oklahoma days. Something has to give.
But firing Barry will solve almost nothing. Many of us have been alive long enough to remember a similar saga involving Mike Pettine. Sometimes, you can kill the man, but not the idea. And for the last decade, the idea has been that the Packers are competitive despite their defense, never because of it.
