In just over a week, the Green Bay Packers will finally be on the clock at the 2023 NFL Draft.
As of this writing, Aaron Rodgers is still on the roster and the Packers don’t have any additional draft capital. But they still have 10 selections and a decent first position at pick No. 15.
For the first time in years, the Packers aren’t just a piece or two away from a Super Bowl. They’ll need to start building a young, inexpensive core around Jordan Love.
Love needs more weapons to set the first-year starter up for success. There aren’t a lot of wide receivers who fit Green Bay’s profile, but this is a heavy tight end class. The Packers have hosted quite a few tight ends in pre-draft visits and have a massive need at the position. While history says it’s not a great idea, it’s time to get comfortable with the idea that Brian Gutekunst might take a tight end in the first round.
If the idea of taking a tight end that early seems groan-inducing, you aren’t alone. Casual fans and experts scoff at the idea of taking a tight end in the first round, and for good reason. Recent history shows that early tight ends don’t pan out for the drafting team. For a breakdown of why, you can look at Wendell Ferreria’s excellent analysis here.
But the quick and dirty version is that few rookie tight ends will live up to their draft capital, especially for the team that drafted them. Tight ends take a notoriously long time to develop into well-rounded pro players thanks to the need to learn so many working parts of the offense. It might take the entirety of a rookie contract for a tight end to develop into a game-changer, and by then another team might be able to pay more for their services. Traditionally not a great ROI.
But there is a small sample size of first-round tight ends taken in the last ten years, and the NFL used to be more successful in finding them 20 years ago. The problem often seems to be more in finding the right prospects and gambling on the right traits.
Acme Packing Co’s Paul Noonan suggests that, unlike with running backs (another position folks tend to shy away from in the first), a tight end’s positional value can be extremely valuable to an offense. Think about how an elite tight end can be a difference-maker. Still, there are so few out there.
You can build an offense around a Travis Kelce or George Kittle-like player, but the hard part is finding one. It’s not like elite tight ends grow on trees. In general, most babies don’t grow from trees. As a whole, the NFL is bad at projecting which prospects can be these difference-making players.
So while history says it’s not the right move and there are positions with much better traditional positional value, if you truly believe a guy can develop into an offense-defining player, you may as well make your move.
And the Packers are doing their research. They’ve had potential Day 1 picks Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, and Darnell Washington in for a visit and have talked to several more projected mid-round prospects. Paul Bretl broke down how Green Bay has traditionally used pre-draft visits and what their visits this year may indicate. Based on these observations, they are likely considering a first-round tight end.
Brian Gutekunst is often unpredictable. As a chaos agent, he took a quarterback when the team appeared a piece or two away from a Super Bowl. Last year, we finally thought he had an idea of his process and selected an off-ball linebacker and an older prospect in the first round. He’s certainly not above bucking the trend and taking a tight end early.
And a complete tight end would be ideal for Matt LaFleur’s offense. Relying on the illusion of complexity means a desire for players who can do it all, and a complete tight end is the ideal fit. Unfortunately, LaFleur hasn’t really had that in his time in Green Bay. He used Marcedes Lewis for blocking, Robert Tonyan as a receiver, and Josiah Deguara for being ignored by Aaron Rodgers. It might take some time to develop, but a solid tight end allows LaFleur to do a lot more in base 11 personnel.
This year’s draft also isn’t flush with can’t-miss talent. There are very few players likely to be available at 15 who are run to the podium types. It’s really starting to feel the pick could be a tight end, especially if the top OTs, edge, and wide receiver are gone.
Ideally, if Green Bay wants to take a tight end that early, they can trade back and get some more capital and still have their choice of players. Whether they want to gamble on athletic traits or go for an NFL-ready prospect like Mayer (who ESPN’s Mina Kimes mentions would fit excellently with the Packers), they should have their choice.
I’m still skeptical about the concept, but the Packers’ scouting staff probably knows more than I do. And, personally, I would love to get Darnell Washington in Green Bay, draft position be damned. There’s a lot of data against taking a tight end in the first round, but it’s worth exploring with a deep class full of options. It hasn’t worked for many teams in the past, but it just might work for us?
