The Green Bay Packers’ first five games leading up to the bye were uneven, inconsistent, and inefficient. The team had high highs, like beating the Chicago Bears on opening day and orchestrating a fourth-quarter comeback against the New Orleans Saints. They also had low lows, losing one-score games against the Las Vegas Raiders and Atlanta Falcons and getting absolutely manhandled by the Detroit Lions. Ultimately, it has led to a middling start to the season for the youngest team in the NFL.
A major part of the Packers struggles has been having unfavorable down-and-distance situations caused by a number of factors. Inefficiency on first and second downs, penalties, and mental mistakes at inopportune times have all caused Green Bay to struggle on offense.
Quarterbacks are often the starting point for praise and blame in the NFL. While some may point to Jordan Love’s inconsistent play and league-worst completion percentage, it doesn’t tell the entire story. Love has led the league in average depth of target with 9.9 yards per pass thrown, meaning he’s been asked to air the ball out a lot so far this year. Additionally, Love leads the league in 0.8 air yards to sticks, a statistic that measures how far before or beyond the sticks a quarterback passes the ball. That means the Packers are consistently aiming beyond the sticks when passing the ball. While this may seem positive, it also means that on first and second downs, more often they are opting away from check downs and yardage to keep them on schedule and shooting for bigger plays.
Ultimately, the Packers may be better served by trying to focus more on being efficient on offense and staying on track in terms of down and distance rather than shooting for explosive downfield passing plays. When asked about offensive identity, Matt LaFleur wrestled with the topic:
You want to be able to hang your hat on something and have whether it is to go to players or plays that you can go to in tough times and know that you have a pretty good chance to have success. I always look at identity as your style of play and are you doing all the little things. Are you making the extra block? Are you pushing piles? Are you pushing forward on runs?
The Packers likely want to hang their hat on Aaron Jones, but he has been inactive or limited ever since the Week 2 hamstring injury. That has left them turning to their younger playmakers who are still learning, and, occasionally, missing some of those little things that lead to consistent success.
Luckily, Aaron Jones returned to practice earlier this week and seems on track for at least limited work against the Denver Broncos. Part of the reason Jones is so critical is that he so often gets more yards than expected, whether it’s turning a two-yard gain to a three-yard gain or breaking off a big play, he keeps Green Bay’s offense on track. For example, in 2022, according to Next Gen Stats, Jones averaged 0.43 rush yards over expected per rushing attempt (RYOE) whereas A.J. Dillon averaged -0.19 RYOE.
Beyond Jones, another part of the equation is getting Luke Musgrave more involved. Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said of Musgrave, “As you go back and watch, how can we get our playmakers the ball? That’s the biggest thing, and he’s one of those guys.” According to Next Gen Stats, Musgrave has led the NFL with an average of five yards of separation. Musgrave is a mismatch the Packers need to find ways to get lined up against linebackers where he can continue to create that separation against slower defenders.
Both Jones and Musgrave can be a quarterback’s best friend. They have the ability to take short passes and turn them into big gains. The Packers should focus on getting them more quick looks behind the line to gain, and then let them create more yards after catch. Then there’s Christian Watson. While Jones and Musgrave profile well to attack the first and second levels of defenses, Watson is a different story. While Watson’s only appeared in two games this year, his 77-yard catch against the Las Vegas Raiders is Green Bay’s longest play of the season.
I’m interested to see how these three players, Jones, Musgrave, and Watson, are deployed after the bye. In particular, I’d like to see Jones get more touches near the line of scrimmage, Musgrave get touches around 5-10 yards downfield, and Watson in a deep play threat role. These three players can be key to the Packers stressing all levels of a defense, and that when they are on the field together they can stretch defenses in interesting ways and create more space for all of the Packers pass catchers to have better success moving forward.
