Teams can change the fate of their franchise in the NFL Draft. It’s a fundamental building block for NFL rosters. Therefore, missing on draft picks can be costly. While the Green Bay Packers have been successful in building through the draft, the 2022 class is shaping up to be one of their best ever.
The chances of finding a starter decrease as the draft goes on, but those odds lower dramatically quite early in the draft.
According to Bleacher Report, the chances of finding a starter are around 90% with the first 15 or so picks. By the end of the second round, it’s a coin flip whether a team will get a starting-level player. In the back half of the third, that number drops to around 30%. By Day 3, it’s 10% to 20% max, and that stat gets propped up by the fourth and fifth-round picks. The chances of finding a starting-level player in the back half of the draft are slim.
In reality, 80% of draft picks in a given class will either not get a second contract from the team that drafted them or not get a second contract at all.
Just look at Green Bay’s 2019 class. They had an exceptional draft, getting Rashan Gary and Elgton Jenkins, two star players. The Packers picked up Darnell Savage’s fifth-year option, but his future is still uncertain. Jace Sternberger, Kingsley Keke, Ka’dar Hollman, Dexter Williams, and Ty Summers were the other players in that class. While all these guys showed flashes, they couldn’t put together a successful NFL campaign. That means about 75% of the class was disappointing — and it was still a superb class.
The Packers are using a draft-and-develop approach to building their roster. They use free agency less than the average team. Green Bay drafted all of this team’s cornerstones. They hand-picked David Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Kenny Clark, Gary, Jaire Alexander, Jordan Love, and Aaron Jones, to name a few. The Packers have also rostered an undrafted player 18-straight seasons and most likely will make it 19 with either Malik Heath or Brenton Cox Jr.
While it may be early to make this claim, it looks like the Packers could end up with a historic class given the returns that they are getting from their 2022 draft picks.
Starting at the top with the Georgia Bulldogs, Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt look like starting-caliber players who can make an impact in the front seven. If they continue their upward trajectory, the Packers nailed the first round.
Green Bay snagged Christian Watson at the beginning of the second round after Brian Gutenkunst’s savvy draft maneuvering. If Watson’s freshman audition is any sign of things to come, then using a second-round pick on him looks like incredible value.
We still don’t know what the Packers have in Sean Rhyan, but he’s made some plays this camp and showed more on film than last season. Player development often requires patience.
The Packers had two picks in the fourth round. Romeo Doubs has connected with Jordan Love and the pair looks dynamic. Expect a big season from Doubs as a starting receiver and a playmaker. Versatile offensive lineman Zach Tom was the other pick in the fourth round. The former Wake Forest Demon Deacon could start at right tackle or center for Green Bay. He’s certainly one of the best five linemen. Tom will put the NFL on notice with his play this season. To get two starters in the fourth round is maniacal behavior from Green Bay’s scouting department.
The Green and Gold took Kingsley Enagbare off the board in the next round, and he’s been solid. The former South Carolina Gamecock could develop into an important rotational edge rusher. Enagbare flashed his speed and strength in the preseason and is pushing for playing time. Enagabre has starter potential as well.
The Packers didn’t have any sixth-round picks, but they took four swings in the seventh. While John Ford and Tariq Carpenter are fighting for roster spots, Samori Toure and Rasheed Walker are fighting for starting spots. Walker has shown out at tackle and looks to be Green Bay’s preferred swing tackle over Yosh Nijman. The former Penn State Nittany Lion is a luxury as a starting-level backup tackle.
Toure has not been as effective at camp. However, he’s still making noise and getting recognized by coaches, which is a great sign. Toure will have to fight for a starting spot alongside rookie receiver Jayden Reed. But to get a starting-caliber tackle and a potential impact receiver in the seventh round is almost delirious.
Some of this is a product of the Packers electing to go with a young roster and trying to foster development. However, the players are talented enough to demand time on the field. Green Bay got six or seven starting-caliber players out of a draft class. That’s over 50% at the low end. Watson, Doubs, and Tom have a chance to become Pro Bowlers and will almost certainly get second contracts.
You can’t ask much more than that from a draft class. Obviously, you’dS want all your picks to hit, but that’s almost never going to happen. The Packers did a terrific job of selecting players in Las Vegas, and they will benefit from it for years to come.
