As the NFC begins to separate the contenders from the pretenders, the Green Bay Packers already find themselves at an inflection point after only four games. On paper, the month of October should be kind to the Packers from a scheduling perspective. If Green Bay is going to stay in the thick of the playoff race, they need to start stacking up wins.
As lackluster as the Packers looked in the 34-20 loss to the Detroit Lions, the immediate silver lining is that the Packers get the coveted “mini bye,” with the league even being so courteous as to stretch it out an extra day. The next game on Green Bay’s schedule is Monday night against the Las Vegas Raiders. Monday games usually mean a short week to follow, but, conveniently, their actual bye week follows, allowing 13 days of recovery before a trip to face the Denver Broncos. After that, the Packers arrive home to play the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams, both talented but disappointing teams.
The way that the season has shaken out so far, there are four playoff spots that the odds makers feel pretty darn good about writing down in permanent ink. The San Francisco 49ers are overwhelming favorites to not just make the playoffs (-3000 odds, according to FanDuel), but they are -600 favorites to win the NFC West, easily the best odds of anyone in the conference.
After taking it to the Packers, the Lions are clearly out in front in the NFC North to make the playoffs (-375 odds) and win the division (-185). The NFC East is a bit murkier when it comes to division winner. The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles both have a legit chance at the division crown, but whomever doesn’t win the division will almost assuredly end up as one of the Wild Card teams. The Eagles are at -1800 to make the playoffs, and the Cowboys are at -500.
Once you add in the NFC South winner (Tampa Bay? New Orleans? Atlanta?), that leaves two Wild Card spots conceivably still up for grabs. If Green Bay wants to make a claim for one of those, now is the time. That’s not to say that the NFC North title is out of reach after just four weeks. But Thursday night showed that there is a bit of a gap between the Lions and the Packers at this juncture.
The Raiders are 1-3 heading into Monday Night Football and enter as a one-point favorite over Green Bay. The Pittsburgh Steelers knocked Jimmy Garoppolo out in Vegas’ Week 3 loss. He remains in concussion protocol after missing the Week 4 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Add in a potentially banged up Davante Adams and the Packers operating with three more days of rest, it’s about as favorable a situation as you could hope for.
The Denver Broncos await in Week 7. They somehow avoided the ultimate embarrassment of losing to the Chicago Bears over the weekend but still sit as one of the bigger disappointments in the league at 1-3. In the two weeks between now and hosting the Packers, though, Denver has to host the still-intimidating New York Jets defense before traveling to Arrowhead Stadium for a surefire shellacking by the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.
The Vikings await the Packers after a trip to Colorado. Minnesota will travel to Lambeau Field after a short week, having just played the imposing San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. The Vikings finally picked up a win in taking down Carolina, but they also have a tilt with Kansas City and a trip to Chicago between now and playing Green Bay.
Anything can happen any week in the NFL. Still, if Green Bay had to draw up a schedule, it might look a lot like what the Packers have waiting for them in October. Back-to-back road games doesn’t sound ideal. But add in a bye week and plenty of rest, and both line up to be very winnable. Coming home to play a potentially still-reeling division rival as a bonus certainly doesn’t hurt things, either.
The Packers would love to win all three games in October to rebound and move to 5-2, but Green Bay absolutely cannot afford to lose more than one game this month. The schedule gets dicier in November. They have the Rams, Steelers, and Chargers next up on the schedule, before a trip to Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. Then they host the Kansas City Chiefs to kick off December.
Green Bay has to stack wins in October. The season figures to be a roller coaster, and climbing out of a hole will be incredibly difficult, as the Packers themselves can attest after running out of gas in Week 18 last year. As top-heavy as the NFC seems to be, just staying afloat should be enough to keep Green Bay in contention for a playoff spot. Coming home from Vegas and Denver with a pair of wins would not only help build the confidence of an incredibly young team. It would provide an important margin of error once the schedule gets tougher in November and December.
