Since the 2011 CBA, NFL rosters have experienced constant turnover. It’s virtually impossible to keep the same core for more than three to four years because teams are dependent on cheap labor, and that only comes via the draft. Right now, it’s unrealistic to win without good classes. However, one good batch of new talent might propel the entire roster. The 2012 Seattle Seahawks and the 2017 New Orleans Saints are two good examples.
However, the Packers are feeling the averse effects of bad drafting.
Generally, the impact is more pronounced in the class’ third year, when players are still affordable but have reached a certain level of technical development and maturity in the league. That’s why the Packers were expected to be a title contender in 2022 and underperformed.
It’s hard to finalize a grade for the 2020 class because it is so dependent on what quarterback Jordan Love will become. But the rest of the group is disappointing, and because Love didn’t start any game last year, the impact from the class was insignificant.
Sixth-round pick Jon Runyan is probably the best selection at the moment; he’s at least an average starter. A.J. Dillon is a decent running back but hasn’t established himself as a standout. He always plays behind Aaron Jones, which doesn’t fulfill the value of a second-round pick. Josiah Deguara is a part-time player. Jake Hanson and Jonathan Garvin are bottom-of-the-roster types. Kamal Martin, Simon Stepaniak, and Vernon Scott aren’t in Green Bay anymore.
The problem gets worse because the 2021 class hasn’t brought great results either — even though they’ve been a little better.
Eric Stokes had a good rookie season but underperformed and then got injured in 2022. Josh Myers is unreliable, though he’s a full-time starting center at least. T.J. Slaton is a rotational defensive lineman, decent value for a fifth-rounder. Beyond that, things aren’t pretty. Royce Newman is not good enough to be a starter, while Shemar Jean-Charles and Isaiah McDuffie are basically special teamers. The Packers have released Amari Rodgers and Kylin Hill, and they traded Cole Van Lanen to the Jacksonville Jaguars for almost nothing last training camp.
How can the team overcome that?
There are three main ways for the Packers to be good over the next couple of years, even with two consecutive questionable draft classes.
The first and second ones are their top choices in both years. In 2020, it was Jordan Love. He’s had only one start and less than 60 pass attempts over the first three years of his career, but now the Packers are ready to roll with him after trading Aaron Rodgers. If Love can put together a great career, the entire class will be a success. Nothing in the NFL is more important than a young, really good franchise quarterback.
Eric Stokes is the second one. If the 2021 first-rounder can stay fully healthy after serious leg injuries and get back on track, he will finally have the chance to play alongside Jaire Alexander and form one of the best cornerback duos in the league.
The third and maybe most important way is to give the younger guys more relevant roles. If the third- and fourth-year players aren’t good enough to provide high-level play and maybe not even depth, the Packers will have to lean on the last two classes.
It’s still early, but the 2022 group looks special. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Zach Tom, Quay Walker, and Kingsley Enagbare have already made an impact as rookies. The team also values Devonte Wyatt and Samori Toure. And the Packers added edge-rushing depth with Lukas Van Ness in the first round this year, in addition to many offensive weapons for Love to work with. Brian Gutekunst added three wide receivers and two tight ends. While it’s unrealistic to expect that all of them will be good, some of them probably will, and that will be imperative for the development of a young unit.
It’s still early to know the results because most of those factors are still uncertain. But that doesn’t mean the team will be bad. It means the 2023 season will be fascinating for the Packers, a version of a team trying to find long-term answers.
