The Green Bay Packers will face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday as the two 6-7 teams vie for playoff positioning. Their individual situations are different, though, as the Packers are trying to sneak into a Wild Card spot while the Buccaneers are tied with the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints atop the AFC South. Tampa leads the division because of tiebreaker scenarios and could receive a home game for the second-straight year.
Green Bay is unlikely to win the NFC North after losing to the New York Giants. ESPN has their odds of winning the North at +3000, or a 2% chance overall. Therefore, every game they play for the rest of the season will be meaningful, especially because two of the other NFC South teams are also in contention for a Wild Card spot.
The Packers are battling for a Wild Card spot with two of the NFC South teams as well as the Rams, Seahawks, and possibly the Vikings. Green Bay and Minnesota would both make the Wild Card if the season ended today.
Green Bay lost to the Falcons (25-24) during Week 2 and beat the Saints (18-17) during Week 3. They won’t play the one-win Carolina Panthers until (week). The Packers will host Tampa Bay in chilly conditions. Bucs starting quarterback Baker Mayfield has lost his only two meetings against Green Bay, on Christmas of 2021 and last year on Monday night when he was with the Los Angeles Rams.
He has a much better receiving corps in Tampa than the other contending teams, with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and rookie Trey Palmer. But the main focus of this game is not Tampa’s offense against Green Bay’s defense, it’s whether the Packers can get anything going offensively.
After coming off of a great game against the Kansas City Chiefs, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns, Jordan Love laid an egg in the Meadowlands. He threw for only 218 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He missed easy throws to open receivers on crucial downs throughout the game and didn’t play well until late in the fourth quarter.
There is nothing special about the Giants’ defense outside of Kayvon Thibodeaux. But Tampa Bay has a much better overall unit. The main weakness of their squad is the secondary, but it’s a secondary that has given Aaron Rodgers and the Packers trouble before, so it remains to be seen how Love and Co. will handle it.
So far this season, Tampa Bay’s pass defense is ranked third worst in the entire league. Meanwhile, their run defense is ranked 10th overall, and their scoring defense is 13th overall. Tampa’s front four consists of Vita Vea, Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaq Barrett. All four of them are All Pro-caliber players.
The Buccaneers also have Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis III, and Antoine Winfield Jr. in their secondary. Those guys are playmakers who have been up and down this season. The Bucs are very good at playing the ball in the air, and they force turnovers, but they also give up over 260 passing yards per game.
The Packers have listed Aaron Jones as questionable with a hamstring injury before this game, so they will have to rely heavily on the passing game. A.J. Dillon has struggled so far this season. He has not proven himself to be the primary back in the backfield. With a run defense as good as Tampa’s, it’s unlikely that the ground game will produce much at all.
Week 15 will be another test for Love to see if he can replicate standout performances like the ones against the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs. He needs to be confident but focused so that he does not miss any easy throws, like he did against the Giants, because the receivers were often open.
With that powerful front four, the offensive line may have trouble with the pass blocking. Therefore, Love should be getting the ball out early to Reed and Doubs so they can gain yards after the catch. If they can start off doing that successfully, it will allow them to open up the passing game more as the defense becomes fatigued.
Love needs to throw the ball well against Tampa if Green Bay wants to keep their playoff hopes alive. If they lose this game, the Packers will fall two games behind Minnesota in the Wild Card race. The Saints, Falcons, and Rams are all favored to win this week, so at least one of them would likely move ahead of the Packers.
Sunday’s game is essentially a playoff game for Green Bay. If they lose, their chances of making the playoffs drop to 29% (per PFF.com), and all but the most optimistic fans will start preparing for the offseason.
