Christian Watson’s ability to vertically stretch a defense with his top-tier speed has been on display since the very first play of his career. And, okay, he did notoriously drop that first pass, but he’s made up for it since. While the drop fades into memory, he continues to prove true the premonition of him as a downfield threat. Unfortunately for Jordan Love, connecting on the deep ball has been one of his glaring weaknesses, especially during the Green Bay Packers’ recent skid. With the news that Watson should be good to go for Sunday’s home game against the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers need the two to get on the same page for the offense to have the balance it needs.
Much was made of Love’s arm strength coming out of Utah State, and that ability certainly didn’t disappear as he waited his turn behind Aaron Rodgers. Most scouting reports alluded to there being “no doubt in his arm talent,” but there were still questions about his ability to connect on those deep throws. Consider what NFL.com draft expert Lance Zierlein had to say about Love’s tape in college:
Love’s accuracy took a step back, and his delayed reaction from “see it” to “throw it” when making reads is troubling. He has the arm to stick throws into tight windows but needs better eye discipline and anticipation to keep windows open.
Love’s lack of accuracy throwing deep reared its head multiple times in this past weekend’s loss to the Denver Broncos. A bad overthrow of Romeo Doubs in the end zone and the final interception on an ill-advised pass intended for Samori Toure were the worst examples. It’s also been an issue for Love this season, where’s he’s chucking it deep but just not connecting, especially to Watson.
Love has had an aDoT, or Average Depth of Target, of around 10 over the first six weeks of the season, which is near the top of the league. Part of that is the aversion to screen passes that hurts the aDoT figure, and most of the pass attempts in Matt LaFleur’s offense have been driven down field. But just because Love is throwing it deep doesn’t mean he’s connecting. Love has been incredibly ineffective when he’s taking a deep shot, with at least 20 air yards on a pass.
In his rookie season, Watson ranked 14th out of 103 qualifying receivers with an aDoT of nearly 14 yards per attempt, but Aaron Rodgers was throwing him the ball. Still, that’s clear evidence of the tantalizing game-breaking ability that was the reason he was drafted in the second round out of North Dakota State. It also explains why expectations were sky-high for Watson in his sophomore campaign.
The issue this season, and granted it’s a small sample size due to Watson’s recurring injuries, is that Jordan Love’s current weakness is negating Watson’s greatest strength. Watson has eight receptions on 16 targets through three games, and two of the eight passes that didn’t reach Watson ended up as interceptions.
Watson had a 77-yard reception two weeks ago against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, that happened on a broken play in which the receiver found himself wide open after pressure forced Love out of the pocket to his left, causing the Raiders defenders to cheat forward to the line of scrimmage. The rest of Watson’s receptions this seasons have been underwhelming for the most part; a 24-yard catch against the Detroit Lions, a 23-yard catch against the Denver Broncos, and receptions of one, six, eight, six, and minus-two yards.
For a player whose strength is taking the top off a defense, Christian Watson has had few opportunities to do that so far this season. The one time he did get loose, against Las Vegas, he was caught from behind on a dirty yet game-saving tackle. Watson’s season stats are a bit skewed due to the paucity of targets, but that in and of itself is an issue, too. The Packers aren’t taking shots downfield to Watson, whether it’s because LaFleur’s not calling them or Love’s not taking them. The quarterback has said he wants to take those shots, yet he hasn’t really made us of one of the premier deep threats in the league.
If Love is going to develop into Green Bay’s quarterback of the future with this roster, he’s going to be paired with Christian Watson, and he’s going to have to make use of this significant asset. As the season trends towards being purely a developmental one, rather than a remotely plausible title run, it would behoove both Love and LaFleur to learn to better take advantage of one of the true mismatches they have on offense. Love needs time in the pocket to be able to make those throws to happen (which is another issue entirely), but he’s also got to continue to let it rip downfield to give Watson a chance to do his thing.
