Through two weeks of the young NFL season, we’ve merely gotten a glimpse of the quarterback Jordan Love will be.
The sample size is small. But Love surely is exceeding most expectations, especially considering he’s been missing a significant amount of his offensive arsenal.
Love is currently leading the NFL in passer rating and tied for the league lead with six touchdowns. Not every metric loves what Love is doing, including PFF’s ungenerous 61.1 rating. But no one expected Love to be Aaron Rodgers 2.0 immediately. What (should) be undeniable is that Love is putting some good things on tape, coming into his own more and more every week. He’s showing that the lights aren’t too bright for him. Love was a long-term investment starting to show some ROI.
But during Sunday’s game, NFL insider Benjamin Allbright suggested that neither Love nor Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder would be QBing for their respective teams next season. Based on Love’s apparent growth, his contract, and how the Packers handle draft picks and quarterback succession, this is a baffling take. Unless Love implodes spectacularly in the remaining 15 weeks, he’ll almost certainly be Green Bay’s starting quarterback in 2023.
People load their analysis of Love with the baggage of pre-draft priors, lingering thoughts about Green Bay’s process with him, and homerism. Every metric has a different opinion of the young quarterback. Love has been impressive in terms of QBR, passer rating, EPA, and Andy Herman’s grades. His QBR (76.3) is fourth in the league. His 118.8 passer rating, combined with his six TD passes and no interceptions, leads the league. Love’s EPA per play is first in the league. A lot of smart, analytically-minded people are impressed.
But just as many are not, with PFF’s grade being the most notable. Love’s completion percentages, deep pass accuracy, and total yards haven’t been numerically impressive. However, the games themselves have shown us context beyond the numbers. We’ve seen some of Love’s rookie receivers drop some of his truly gorgeous, challenging throws. Perhaps his best play of the young season was on a beautifully run flea flicker that didn’t count thanks to defensive pass interference.
Love has shown improved footwork along with the ability to make his reads and make the right decisions. He also has poise in the face of adversity, and admirable leadership abilities. There’s no metric for intangibles (I think), and I’m clearly biased as a Packers fan (and NFL owner). But the eye test shows a player loaded with talent making conscious efforts to improve on his flaws and growing with an unproven cast of receivers. These traits should make the Packers and their fanbase feel good about sticking with Love.
Money is the clearest way to show that they believe in Love. Green Bay showed some early optimism with Love as a starter by extending the 2020 first-rounder with a one-year, $13.5 million contract rather than pick up his fifth-year option. The balance of this deal was giving Love more guaranteed money this season, some guaranteed money next season, and the chance to potentially make more than what a fifth-year option would have thanks to incentives.
It was a good middle ground for the Packers and Love. Love gets the chance to make more money and also didn’t have to potentially play on a lame-duck year if Green Bay didn’t pick up his option. Meanwhile, the Packers bought themselves an extra year of evaluation at a cheaper cost if Love underperforms.
If Love continues performing well, the Packers could sign Love to a long-term deal by midseason. But even if they don’t, the intent of Love’s extension seems to give Green Bay a two-year window to observe Love as a starter before moving on — which still keeps him as their QB in 2024.
Finally, let’s say Love fizzles out and finishes the season with a whimper. That one-year window is enough to show Gutekunst and Co. that Love isn’t their guy. Even in this case, it’s hard to see the Packers making drastic moves.
Even if the Packers don’t want Love as their guy in 2024, he still probably would be thanks to how the team historically handles the position.
Love would have to be absolutely terrible to put the Packers in a position to be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Any team in the position to draft the tantalizing QB is probably going to draft him themselves, and you’d have to sell everything to convince a team to trade out of that spot. I just can’t see this team being that bad.
So if the Packers want to draft a quarterback, it probably won’t be Williams. The chances of Green Bay drafting a QB and playing the rookie during Week 1 is low. Green Bay is a draft-and-develop team. They prefer to bet on high ceilings and make rookies earn starting spots. Rodgers and Love sat for three years behind the incumbent starter before getting a starting shot. That isn’t legally binding, but any quarterback Green Bay drafts is probably sitting behind someone else for at least a few games. And if you’re already paying Love, you’d probably have the rookie learn behind Love.
Free agency doesn’t fit their M.O. either. A Mitch Trubisky-type signing would be a half-measure I don’t see them pursuing. Any post-Love succession plan probably takes more than a season.
And let’s not forget how much the Packers love their draft picks. They’re a team much more likely to hold onto a player too long rather than release them without a great reason. Ron Wolf and Brian Gutekunst wildly differ in that philosophy.
In general, teams around the league already love to hold onto quarterbacks that maybe they shouldn’t. Chicago is probably already sticking with Justin Fields longer than they should have, and Love has already shown far more as a passer. Unless Love turns into Nathan Peterman overnight (and even he still gets chances!) or commits a heinous crime, he’s there in 2024.
You can argue that Jordan Love might not work out as an NFL starting quarterback. I disagree. I think Love has shown at the very least, he can be an above-average starter. There are fair criticisms of Love’s play! But to specifically say that Love won’t be the QB next season feels baffling based on Love’s growth, the team’s apparent faith in the young quarterback, and how they traditionally operate. We’ll check back in at this time next year, I guess.
